Posted on 07/11/2007 2:13:48 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, a champion of traditional conservatives, and Rudy Giuliani, a favorite of political independents, may be the biggest beneficiaries if John McCain's bid for the Republican presidential nomination collapses, political experts say.
McCain's campaign is teetering after the loss yesterday of his chief political aides, a blow that comes the week after a disappointing fund-raising report. McCain, 70, once the Republican frontrunner, is vowing to fight on amid growing speculation about his viability.
If McCain is forced to abandon the race or loses more ground, Thompson and Giuliani will try to scoop up his political and financial backers.
``Those people who were attracted to McCain on the issues will go to Giuliani and those who were attracted by his perceived inevitability will probably now be attracted to Thompson,'' said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union in Alexandria, Virginia.
In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Giuliani led with 30 percent backing from potential Republican primary voters; Thompson, an undeclared candidate who is testing the waters, scored 20 percent and McCain 16 percent. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney received 9 percent in the July 6-8 survey.
The latest uproar in the McCain camp was triggered by the resignations of John Weaver, his senior strategist, and Terry Nelson, the campaign's manager. Rick Davis, chief executive officer of the campaign, was tapped to fill Nelson's duties.
Sounding Board
Weaver's departure stunned political observers because he has been a sounding board for the Arizonan for many years.
``This is a campaign organization that should have been hitting on all cylinders, not throwing off parts,'' said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri in Columbia and an expert on Iowa politics. ``It is becoming harder and harder to concoct a scenario where McCain pulls out the nomination.''
Political professionals who reckon Giuliani, 63, will inherit much of McCain's support base that judgment on the former New York mayor's strong stand on terrorism and national security and his against-the-grain appeal to independents.
Those who say Thompson, 64, has the most to gain from a McCain crack-up consider Giuliani too out of step with the party's traditional values voters to reap much of a reward.
`Consistently Conservative'
``Thompson has already hurt McCain'' by siphoning off some of his backers, said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. Black said traditional Republican voters may see Thompson as ``the more consistently conservative'' candidate in the field.
Thompson backers predict that if McCain is forced to drop out, the lion's share of his supporters, staff, and fundraisers will gravitate toward a presumed Thompson bid.
``There's a populist movement that is following Fred Thompson now,'' said Bob Davis, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party. ``A lot of folks who probably supported McCain will probably be drawn to Senator Thompson for that very reason.''
Romney, while running fourth in national polls, claims a frontrunner's mantle because he's ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire surveys. He says early successes in those states will make him a national force.
Money Shortfall
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said McCain's distress ``helps all the other top-tier contenders because one of the primary candidates is not going to have the money to compete in television or on organization.''
McCain's latest troubles began when the candidate, recently returned from a trip to Iraq, met with Weaver and Nelson to discuss campaign shortcomings on the money front, according to a campaign adviser who spoke directly with the duo.
In the discussions, it became apparent that McCain had lost confidence in his team's fund-raising abilities, which led to offers of resignation that were accepted, the adviser said. Tensions came to a head when the issue of whether McCain would need to accept federal matching funds was raised.
That would have provided McCain some quick cash but would also limit his overall spending to about $50 million. Giuliani and Romney, 60, each have already raised more than $30 million and don't plan to accept public subsidies for the primary elections.
In a related move, top campaign aide Mark Salter, who is closer to McCain than any of his other campaign chieftains, agreed to become an unpaid senior adviser.
Asked about his recent presidential setbacks, McCain told reporters on Capitol Hill yesterday that he had no intention of abandoning his presidential quest. ``I'm very happy with the campaign,'' he said.
Tough job trying to predict the unpredictable but, my guess is that the majority will go into a major pout and sit out another one. I suspect that the core of McCain’s support is old Ross Perot diehards.
Fred Ping!
i am thinking more and more:
Thompson/Romney 2008
Thompson certainly is a strong candidate, to the right of George Bush by a country mile. Conservatives will be on board.
Romney, who will appeal to moderates, independents, and the women attracted to Edwards, could earn his conservative bona fides in 8 years.
The combination of Thompson/Romney may have the right stuff to carry 2008.
Somehow, I get the feeling that Freddy the RINO is not the guy we’re looking for.
I’ll go with Duncan Hunter.
Duncan Hunter should be in first or second place.
What's this "we" business -- do you have a mouse in your pocket? :)
Thompson is definitely the candidate I'm looking for. Both Hunter and Thompson have great national security credentials, but the addition of Thompson's record on federalism, and his understanding of the proper Constitutional roles of state and federal government, puts him miles ahead of any other candidate for me.
“Duncan Hunter should be in first or second place.”
I agree with you. He is the closest thing we have right now to Teedie Roosevelt who happens to be the former president I most admire. I wonder how a conversation would have gone between the silky pony and Teedie on his South American expedition going down the River of Doubt.
Silky Pony Edwards: We’re not going to make it Mr. Roosevelt, we have to turn back.
TR: Suck it up!!
Seriously, I like Duncan Hunter and Mike Huckabee the best. However, they just are not gaining traction. Out of the front runners. I support Fred Thompson...
When Duncan gets above 5% in the polls please mail me...
So let’s say Duncan doesn’t get the Republican nomination and Fred does...Are you going to vote for Fred over Hillary?
“Are you going to vote for Fred over Hillary?”
My fear is if Rudy or Mitt get the nod and we have a choice of one of those two over Hillary. They are both talking a good game right now, but their records speak louder to me. They both have a history of being gun grabbers and both have a history of abortion support. While Mitt has had a sudden conversion on abortion and they both have had a conversion on gun control, I prefer conversions that happen years before running for president and acting on your beliefs at a lower office than President. To me, this would not be much of a choice.
Obviously - but, then again, I’d vote for my dog over Hillary (or Edwards or Barack Hussein, et al.)
McCain’s backers were (past tense) the Neocon jocksniffers and Chambers of Commerce—never the middle class Joe Sixpacks. I expect their support to go to Rudy.
LOL! I'm guessing the candidates who are going try try to woo them will take a more tactful approach than yours.! ;^)
I resent that comment. Those of us who voted for Ross Perot twice have learned our lesson, and are not about to make that mistake again.
We now know that the media is in love with Fred, just like it used to be in love with McCain. Watch for more articles showing Fred as a maverick, a populist. Watch for articles saying "Fred is good with veterans (like McCain was)." "Fred "tells it like it is" (just like McCain). Fred voted for campaign finance reform. The media loved that about McCain. They love it about Fred. So let's stop pretending that every story out of the press is a hit piece on an undeclared candidate. I'd like to think of it as a love letter from infatuated media. "Say goodbye to the old boss...just like the new boss".
Sir/Madam, are you smoking something other than tobacco? Senator Thompson hasn’t even declared yet, and he’s been accused of: Lobbying for a pro-abortion group, throwing his sons business, being a ‘mole’ for President Nixon during the Watergate hearings, a cradle robber with a buxom ‘trophy wife’, being a RINO, and much more!! Get real!
Its sir...and to you, these media “attacks” are surely baseless. But to the press, these stories show that Fred is the media darling. Who else did the press love that had a thing for younger women? Bill Clinton of course! What press writer doesn’t think lobbying for abortion rights isn’t a good thing?
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