The way I see it, it could be at least TEOTWAKI, the end of the world as we know it. Here's how I see it could play out:
Syria re-invades Lebanon, citing the turmoil between Hezbollah and Lebanese forces as the ostensible reason, but for a host of unstated reasons. Among them - hampering the Lebanese army's attempt to reign in Hezbollah, putting an end to the UN tribunal trying Syria in essence for the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, and the desire to act as Iran's proxy in instigating a general war involving Israel, the US and Iran.
In response, the US, which has been aiding Lebanese forces in regaining control of their country, recognizes that Lebanon is too weak to repel a full Syrian assault and invades Syria from Iraq. It's actually a two-fer, since we can also take out their insurgent training camps and their cross-border weapons transfer infrastructure.
Iran launches a surprise retaliatory attack on US forces in Iraq - citing their obligations under the recently signed Iran-Syria Mutual Defense Pact. The US and Iran then get what both have been itching for, for years. Total war. We then have justification to take out their nuke sites. Iran gets their apocalyptic war to bring back the 12th Mahdi. We launch air attacks on nuke sites. Iran retaliates with WMD bio attacks in the US. Global jihad is instigated by Iran. Full religious war breaks out in Europe, Asia and the US.
TEOTWAKI, in any literal sense of the term.
And what will be the name of that battle?
You forgot Chinese ICBM’s launched to protect Iran’s new oil-ex partner. Hmm which side will Russia jump in on?
Possible?
Mathematically.
Likely?
No.
No need to invade Syria, there’s nothing there.
Head of the snake is 180 degrees in the opposite direction.
If Iran uses WMD it simplifies our options.
Conventionally, they can’t project force longer than 90 days before folding up like a house of cards.
Won’t be fun, but not the end of the world.
Lot’s funner than Iran with nukes too.
I think Aegis can take Silkworms, and even a few new toys too. Air/air’s a walk. Long way from Amarah to Baghdad, and most of the world hasn’t even figured out the JSOW “pause” during OIF yet.
Biggest problem is the Strait. I see a new era in “suppression”, or else Iran getting...smaller.