Posted on 07/06/2007 6:36:39 AM PDT by MplsSteve
Minnesota is among four states hoping to hang on to a seat in Congress after the 2010 census, the state demographer said.
Tom Gillaspy said Minnesota would lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives if the census were taken today. He said the state is competing with Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Minnesota has had eight House seats since 1960.
"The difference is very, very small," he said, "easily within any estimating error and easily within a slight modification in growth rates."
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
How much representation is ‘lost’ or shifted due to
counting non-citizens and even illegal aliens for purposes of representation?
It must be a lot.
we should have states make a determination that all congressional districts should be apportioned equally based on the number of citizens of voting age.
In the 2010 census, we should count the number of citizens and divide the districts accordingly.
Same here.
Take a look at the population growth in Dakota, Scott and Carver counties.
Definitely huge.
But the inner cities of Minneapolis and St Paul are losing population. And the Iron Range continues to bleed out.
My ex-girlfriend was an Iron Ranger. A rare Republican too.
She loved being by her family but there was really no future up there - unless you wanted to work full-time as a cashier at K-Mart. She left for the Twin Cities.
And that was back in the mid-80’s. I’m not sure things have gotten better up there either.
On a side note, a number of counties in western Minnesota (Yellow Medicine, Swift, Mahnomen, etc) are all feeling a loss in population too.
It is growing in pop. Just not as quickly as elsewhere.
It’s important we hold the Governorship and win back the legislature so Keef X and Betty Crocker can form a circular firing squad.
NYS will lose at least one.
Note to the nation: Vote for 'Rats and RINOs and all this, too, can be yours...
Good question. I think you’re right.
Census counters in the inner cities of Mpls-St Paul will count every last illegal alien and transient they can.
Mayors RT Rybak and Chris Coleman will be (tongue in cheek) drive the census counters around personally if they have to.
And a conservative state will gain one hopefully!
With apologies to Henny Youngman, take my 5th Cong. District, please.
Diez.
After the 1990 census, Democrats controlled redistricting in a lot more states than Republicans. They tried to gerrymander just right and they spread themselves too thin. Republicans seemed to have made the same mistake in 2000.
How MN gets redistricted when it loses a House seat after 2010 (and it almost certainly will lose a House seat) will depend solely on who controls the state legislature and the governorship after the 2010 elections.
In 2001, Jesse Ventura was governor and the Dems and Republicans each controlled one house, so redistricting ended up in court, where they drew 3 rural districts, 2 urban districts and 3 suburban districts; before that, there were 4 rural CDs (one in each corner of the state) and 2 suburban CDs. Legislative Republicans had wanted to combine the St. Paul 4th with the Minneapolis 5th, but they didn’t have the votes.
If the state GOP has full control of the process in 2011, this is what I would advise that it does:
1. Create a minority-influence district that combines Minneapolis and its most heavily Democrat suburbs with St. Paul and some adjoining suburbs. The district would be defensible as a way of empowering minority voters, and would obviously serve to pack Democrats into a single district.
2. Create a Catholic Democrat district that starts off in the heavily Democrat Iron Range and, hugging the Wisconsin border, extends to St. Paul’s Democrat suburbs. It would be very difficult to draw a reliably Republican district that includes blue-collar Democrats from the Duluth area, and the Democrats in the St. Paul suburbs that would be left out of the combined Twin Cities CD would tend to make whatever district they are in lean Democrat, so combining these two groups in one district would allow a pro-life Catholic Democrat in the James Oberstar mold to be elected while making surrounding districts comfortably Republican.
3.-7. Create 5 GOP-leaning CDs in the rest of the state. The current MN-07, held by conservative Democrat Collin Peterson, could be extended to take in Republican parts of Oberstar’s MN-08 and other surrounding areas: The district would be sure to elect a Republican when Peterson retires, or if he finally switches parties. Southern MN could make up the redrawn MN-01, which would be more Republican than its current incarnation. Suburban GOP districts could be drawn in (i) Washington, Dakota, Scott and Carver counties (Kline), (ii) Hennepin and Wright counties (Ramstad or, hopefully, a pro-life replacement), and (iii) Anoka, Isanti, Chisago, Sherburne, Benton and Stearns counties (Bachmann).
If the GOP can draw 5 Republican CDs out of 7 in the state, it would be a huge victory. The trick is not to get too greedy by trying to draw 6 GOP CDs, or to make the MN-07 so Republican (in an attempt to knock off Peterson) that it gives the Democrats a chance of winning surrounding districts. But before any of that is possible, we need to (i) win control of both houses of the state legislature and (ii) retain the governorship in an open-seat race.
You can count 4 less conservatives in the very near future.
As soon as the daughter finishes high school, we're bailing on this state.
All life-long Minnesotas, all born in the cities -- raised the kids outstate though --- but outstate is getting strange too.
Interesting perspective.
Here’s one more (from a potential Dem perspective)...
The Dems in this state hate Michele Bachman, first term Rep from the Twin Cities’ northern suburbs. They are very obsessed with seeing her crash and burn.
Jim Oberstar’s district (8th CD) continues to bleed out. To increase population in the 8th CD, they throw northern Washington County and northern Anoka County from the 6th CD into the 8th CD. Maybe part of Stearns County too. Maybe all of Anoka County.
In short, Bachman is re-districted into the 8th CD and would face a very uncertain shot at re-election.
The suburbs of the Twin Cities are by and large right leaning if not solid pubbie. In our sleepy little village of Inver Grove Heights we are seeing a great deal of urban flight. All we ask, and we say it out loud, is that they don't bring their politics with them.
If the Democrats focus on beating Bachmann instead of on drawing 5 Democrat CDs (and maybe a 6th CD where Peterson would win), the GOP will be able to win 2-3 CDs (and pick up the Peterson CD when he retires). Adding heavily GOP counties to Oberstar’s CD would make it a 50-50 district in presidential elections, and while Oberstar would likely be able to beat Bachmann, the district would probably go GOP within a few years. The Democrats should draw a hyper-Republican CD that takes in the suburban and exurban towns that voted 60%+ for Bush in 2004, even if it means that Bachmann beats out Ramstad and Kline in the primary.
That’s how I found the builder of my new house. Thankfully were up in fairly red Anoka County.
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