Primary or not, national polls don’t matter.
It’s all state-by-state, county-by-county.
You are right. It’s all about winning in the early states to gain the momentum to take all the other states by storm. Now let me go check who is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire...
Yes, but. To the extent national polls affect fund raising, they matter. In the case of 2004, Kerry was down in the national polls, but he had his wife's purse from which he could fund his on-the-ground operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Once he scored in Iowa, everything changed. But he had to have Teresa's bankroll to make it happen.
That's why McCain's implosion is important. Without money, he cannot put an organization on the ground. He's got no sugar Momma (or Daddy) to foot the bill. He's finished.