There’s no way on earth that’s an accurate sampling. Nothing against Romney at all, but this is California we’re talking about.
The wild disparity in poll results tells me a lot about the sampling size, time of day polled, sample pool, etc.
Believe what you will but it’s fairly worthless. He may get 3rd with Fred in the race, but it’s a winner-take-all state.
The California poll showing Romney in the lead wasn’t an accurate sampling. More people labelled themselves as extremely conservative than you would see in a more general poll, and more people were also college-educated than you see in the general populace in California.
Both of those played into Romney’s favor, especially against Giuliani.
That said, I think Romney has a very strong chance of taking California. If it comes down to him and Thompson, I believe he will. Mainly because his business-oriented approach will sell better there, where Thompson’s deep-fried southerness won’t sell as well as in other parts of the country.
I didn’t claim it to be accurate and it is, after all, just one poll. I merely cited it to support the notion that it seems to indicate that he has a shot in California. However, unless the sample was taken from his direct family or a Mormon ward in CA, it shows that there is a significant amount of support for him. Just how big it really is and whether that translates to victory there, we shall see.