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Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Posted on 06/19/2007 4:37:39 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
From NBC's Mark Murray A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided". In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided. On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each. With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
For all the money and time Romney has spent in Iowa, he is only 8 points ahead of Fred. His campaign, it seems to me, is just about on life support. If he loses the Ames poll or only wins it by a hair, he will be finished.
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Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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I know Romney is up at least 50 points in California too.
Let’s all take time to smile that McCain is reaping what he has sowed.
move along... no spin here...
He’s leading a few states. He has NEVER hit first in the nation like Thompson did.
Romney has been campaigning and has spent millions in both Iowa and New Hampshire and has built a large lead in the state. It is Romney’s strategy to win these two states. Everyone knows that. What is shocking is Thompson is probably going to beat him in Iowa despite the huge effort Romney has made. There is no way Fred should be this close.
You state Romney is “only 8 points ahead of Fred.”
Do you realize in presidential politics that is a landslide?
Reagan beat Carter by 9% in 1980 and it was considered a landslide.
Bush beat Dukakis in 1988 by 8% and it was considered a landslide.
Clinton beat Dole in 1996 by 8% and it was considered a landslide.
I don’t think I’d be bragging that your candidate’s opponent is ahead by “only 8 points.” I would instead be thinking my candidate may be in for a good old fashioned whuppin’ unless things change.
The article states: “With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who’s leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest).”
Notice Romney, not Thompson is identified as the big winner.
The dynamics may change and Thompson has plenty of time to win decisively in Iowa. But as of right now, Thompson and the rest of the Republican candidates are getting trounced by Romney in Iowa.
P.S. I like both Thompson and Romney. If Thompson ends up as the Pubbie nominee, I can easily support him.
9.7% in the RCP average after spending many millions is not anywhere I would want to be if I were running for President. He is in single digits in South Carolina. His lead is dwindling in Iowa, where he is practically a citizen. You may as well face it. After spending millions, he is in single digits. In the RCP average, he began at 6.2%, has never gone higher than 10.7% (which was in early June, right about the time FDT formed his exploratory fundraising committee) and he is at 9.7% and dropping, all vis a vis a candidate who now sits atop the very reliable Rasmussen spoll, having spent not one dime. (FYI, Romney is #4 in Rasmussen, tied with McCain at 10%) That is not spin. It is simply the ablity to see facts straight on.
As it becomes even clearer that he is not the conservative alternative to Rudy, and that he is not even viable, his support in Iowa and New Hampshire (where he is practically a favorite son, as was Democrat Paul Tsongas for whom Mitt voted in the 1992 primary) will melt away like the first snowfall.
Agreed! LOL at McCain at 6% and tied with Brownback!
“As it becomes even clearer that he is not the conservative alternative to Rudy, and that he is not even viable, his support in Iowa and New Hampshire (where he is practically a favorite son, as was Democrat Paul Tsongas for whom Mitt voted in the 1992 primary) will melt away like the first snowfall.”
You know, you are counting your chickens before they have even hatched, which in politics, is a dangerous game to play. We will know in seven months which way the wind is truly blowing, but you, nor I, nor anyone else knows exactly how the political chips may fall between now and then. There is many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.
It’s fun to see Senator Juan Shamnesty trailing Huckabee, and even tied with Brownback, but the margin of error in this poll is 5% plus or minus, and that’s a fairly large margin. Most drive-by-polls have a 3 to 4 percent MoE, and they only use several hundred voters. This one probably used a mere two or three hundred on the Republican side, and may be wildly off.
Eight points, against an undeclared candidate,who has spent nothing, six months before the primary when you have lived in a state and spent millions there is not a landslide. It, coupled with the national polls, is evidence that Romney’s campaign is crumbling. Moreover, 21% are undecided. Do you seriously think that those undecideds, who have been watching Romney’s commercials for all these months are going to trend his way or Fred Thompson’s? If you think they will go Romney’s way, tell me why? Romney’s eight point lead is no lead at all.
Dole led Clinton in the polls in spring 1995. Carter was ahead of Reagan in the polls in spring 1980. Bush was 17 points behind Dukakis in the polls just before the Republican convention in 1988. A preel;ction poll like this is not a “landslide”. It is not conclusive. But, as I point out above, it is indicative of a tend which does not bode well for Romney, but which portends great success for FDT.
If you want to accept NBC’s characterization that Romney is the big winner, you might want to address John Kerry as “Mr. President.” They called that one too.
“you are counting you chickens.”
I am not counting anything, and it is not dangerous if you are not in politics. By the way, I have no stake in the race and no interest other than to see the USA get the best possible President. What I am observing is a trend which favors Fred Thompson and does not favor Romney. And I am not alone in these observations.
We can all read the “tea leaves” however we want. The reality is that Thompson is DOWN 8 points and in presidential politics that is a lot. If the honeymoon lasts, he may win in Iowa. We’ll just have to watch it to the end.
In either case, its win-win for me since I like both of them.
I have a little trivia question for you. since the Iowa caucuses began in the 1970s, how many non-incumbent Presidents have won it? And how many candidates who have lost Iowa have gone on to be elected President.
The answer to the first question is 2: Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000.
As for the number of candidates who have lost Iowa and have gone on to become President: That would be 3: Reagan in 1980; George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992. (Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and still won the nomination).
Being down 8 points in Iowa at this stage (with 21% undecided) is insignificant, and a win there will guarantee Romney nothing. A lot more disturbing is the trend which has Mitt down not a mere 8 points but 18 points NATIONALLY and not in 2nd place but in 4TH. That, my friend, is a lot, whether in Presidential politics or in an election for the school board. I do not believe there is a candidate in the GOP field that would not want to be in Fred Thompson’s shoes right now, particularly Mitt Romney.
i thought Romney was nowhere in the polls? now he is leading the GOP?
And his supporters can’t even use a shift key.
FYI, intrade.com has the odds on Romney winning Iowa down from 60% to 35% in the last week.
They have Fred down only from 30% to 27% in the last week.
A 30% gap is now an 8% gap. In one week.
Rudy is at 10%. McCain at 5%.
I think those who put their money where their mouth is see the writing on the wall.
Iowa just went uncertain, and the bettors are standing on the sidelines.
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