Today’s prediction:
Fred wins SC, NC, FL and IA.
Romney wins NH.
Rudy wins WA.
Iowa will be tough. Romney's invested a lot of time and money there. If Thompson wins there despite that, Romney's done, no matter how New Hampshire turns out. I agree that Thompson runs away with the Carolinas; the margin of victory in Florida will depend on how much Guiliani has imploded by then.
If Guiliani is toast (i.e., 0-for-the-season) by Florida, he maybe still gets a couple of northeast states on Super Tuesday, but that makes California and Washington more likely to be Thompson country.