Posted on 06/18/2007 12:50:51 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain (news, bio, voting record) and Mitt Romney dominate the 10-man field for the Republican presidential nomination, with Fred Thompson threatening to roil an unsettled race.
Rare circumstances serve as the backdrop.
The sitting Republican president and party standard-bearer, George W. Bush, has abysmal job-performance ratings. Vice President Dick Cheney doesn't want the job and there's no natural heir, a significant departure for a party that historically has nominated the next in line.
The result is one of the most fluid GOP races in half a century.
Giuliani, a former New York mayor; McCain, an Arizona senator; and Romney, an ex-governor of Massachusetts, are the strongest contenders. They lead the field in organization, endorsements and money.
But Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor, casts an enormous shadow and placed a close third behind Giuliani and McCain in a recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll. All but certain to enter the race, he's become a favorite of conservatives who are underwhelmed with the current field.
Underdog candidates former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (news, bio, voting record) and five other long-shots are looking to catch fire in certain states.
The Iraq war, immigration, terrorism and abortion are the hottest issues.
To win, a candidate must collect a majority of delegates 1,255 to be exact. That number, like the date of each state's contest and the delegate allotments, is in flux. Voting begins in January.
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IOWA Jan. 14 (32 delegates)
Romney has emerged as the one to beat, and his strategy calls for winning the caucuses to ride a momentum wave to New Hampshire. Unknown here before 2007, he's spent $1 million in TV ads and direct mail to introduce himself, visited 11 times and hired veteran operatives. McCain is vigorously campaigning here after skipping Iowa in 2000 and has built an organization that rivals Romney's. The 70-year-old senator is trying to overcome his unpopular support for immigration legislation, the perception that he is yesterday's candidate and doubts that he'll be a loyal Republican. Giuliani has sent mixed signals about how hard he plans to compete here. His support for abortion rights and gay rights alienates some conservatives. Both Giuliani and McCain bowed out of a high-profile straw poll in August. Thompson could find success in Iowa. Lesser-knowns pinning their hopes on the state haven't broken through. Brownback may have the best chance and is courting the religious right.
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NEVADA Jan. 19 (33 delegates)
The state presents a new dynamic for Republican hopefuls, given that it recently decided to hold its Republican caucuses earlier than in past years. Giuliani, McCain and Romney are trying to determine how to hard to compete in Nevada; the focus has been elsewhere. Nevertheless, all three have raised money here and rank well in surveys. So does Thompson. From neighboring Arizona, McCain may have the best chance to capture Nevada. He's a frequent visitor and he can readily address Western topics such as water rights, American Indian issues, property rights, energy development and immigration. Nevada ranks in the top five of states with the most Mormons and, as a member of that faith, Romney could benefit. But McCain isn't ceding any ground and has dispatched Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., a Mormon and an ally, to campaign in Nevada. Giuliani has scooped up some high-profile endorsements. One unknown is how the immigration issue plays in the Hispanic-heavy state.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE Jan. 22 (32 delegates)
The state should be McCain's to lose, given that the senator bested Bush here by 18 percentage points in 2000. He is universally known and has an existing network of backers. But he's fighting the notion that he's different from the rebel the state once embraced, and he's facing a serious challenge from Romney. The Bostonian has a vacation home here and is well-known as the GOP governor of liberal Massachusetts. His $1 million in TV ads have focused on a conservative message as he runs to the right of his rivals. Another Northeasterner, Giuliani, also has appeal here, with his moderate-to-liberal record. Independents are a wild card. In the last contested GOP primary eight years ago, they voted en masse in the GOP primary and helped McCain win. This time, the state is trending Democratic and independents could choose to participate in the star-studded Democratic contest. None of the long-shots is gaining steam.
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FLORIDA Jan. 29 (112 delegates)
The early advantage goes to Giuliani. The delegate-rich Sunshine State has a Republican electorate most amenable to his moderate-to-liberal views and plenty of retired New Yorkers. Giuliani, who has a double-digit lead in state surveys, has focused on solidifying support and building an organization here, perhaps more so than anywhere else. Giuliani also is a celebrity who attracts cash, and strong fundraising is crucial with Florida's expensive media markets. Romney is giving chase to Giuliani and has the support of several allies to popular former Gov. Jeb Bush. McCain, too, is a regular in Florida, and campaigned for current Gov. Charlie Crist last fall. Three variables loom large: the impact of the strong-polling Thompson, how immigration plays in the Cuban and Haitian bastions and the fallout of the state's decision to move up the primary in violation of party rules. The GOP says states that cross it will lose half their delegates.
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SOUTH CAROLINA Feb. 2 (46 delegates)
The Southern state is ripe for Thompson to bigfoot the top-tier contenders who are locked in a three-way race but haven't won over influential conservatives. A state survey shows the all-but-declared candidate essentially tied with Giuliani. McCain's state campaign is a powerhouse in organization and endorsements, but his unpopular immigration stance and lingering resentment from a bitter 2000 race complicate his quest. He counts the state's popular Sen. Lindsey Graham (news, bio, voting record) as a close friend and adviser. Romney has a strong presence and has spent money on TV ads and direct mail. But his Mormon faith is an obstacle in a state heavily populated by Christian evangelicals. Giuliani is popular with moderates along the coast; conservatives elsewhere don't like his support for abortion rights and gun control. Huckabee is a possible dark horse, given his credentials as a Southern Baptist preacher and former governor. But some voters aren't convinced he can win in November. Enter Thompson, a Tennessean with a right-leaning Senate resume.
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MEGA TUESDAY Feb. 5 (at least 831 delegates)
It's all about momentum and money on Mega Tuesday; candidates will need heavy doses of both to compete in more than a dozen states holding contests. Retail politicking will give way to ultra-expensive TV advertising. More than 50 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen when voting ends on what amounts to a national primary day. If Giuliani survives earlier states, he could be a force given the roster of Northeastern states where he has ties and delegate-rich states where he could have appeal California (173), New York (102), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30). The Giuliani camp has suggested the rapid-succession primary calendar may dilute the importance of leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Thus, he also has been spending time in Feb. 5 states and paying particular attention to California. There, and in some other states, candidates can win delegates congressional district by congressional district, and they may try to cherry pick the districts offering the most delegates. McCain and Romney contend the compressed calendar makes early states even more important. Even so, they, too, have ventured to California and are establishing operations in other Mega Tuesday states. Romney was born and raised in Michigan, and he's angling to triumph there. McCain won the state in 2000 and wants a repeat. Thompson's Tennessee and nearby Georgia also vote that day. Arkansas, where Huckabee was governor for 10 1/2 years, is on the roster as well.
One primary left off is the dual Alabama primary.
http://alisdb.legislature.state.al.us/acas/searchableinstruments/2007rs/bills/hb358.htm
http://www.votelaw.com/blog/archives/005317.html
The bay counties will vote on January 30, and the rest of the state votes on Feb 5. Read the bill which is linked here to understand why this is important.
Ping!
Ping
.Ron Paul will take it all!
..Ron Paul will take it all!
...Ron Paul will take it all!
Romney will carry Iowa, New Hampshire, might lose South Carolina but will annihilate the rest of the field on Super Tuesday due to his money advantage and momentum from early wins. McCain is done, Rudy will entrench himself in Florida and Fred will depend on a win in South Carolina to stay in the race.
“The sitting Republican president and party standard-bearer, George W. Bush, has abysmal job-performance ratings.”
Actually, I think “abysmal” is giving him too HIGH a rating on job performance.
If Jorge isn’t careful, Hillary will be to the right of him.
“If Giuliani survives earlier states, he could be a force given the roster of Northeastern states where he has ties and delegate-rich states where he could have appeal California (173), New York (102), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30). “
If this happens,the GOP is DOA. NONE of these States are strong Republican States and his victory there giving him so many electoral votes will be self-defeating for the GOP - PERMANENTLY.
If Jorge isnt careful, Hillary will be to the right of him.
Man I don’t think she is far away from that...
Can’t say I disagree.
Compassionate Conservative = Closet Liberal
It will be interesting to see how Paul does across Texas at both the congressional district’s level and statewide. My guess is he’ll win very few of the delegates to the National Convention.
All the information about McCain is a bunch of BS, especially what is written about SC!
It’s gonna be a sweep. Ron Paul will take it all!
Its gonna be a sweep.
#1 how old are you? Get a grip, youngin’
#2 are you living in la-la land? the guy is already toast.
You will be voting for Ron in the general election if you stick with the Republican party.
Sounds good to me.
Uh-huh, I see.....
Put down the drugs, and move slowly away....
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