If consumption fell 2% per year, present reserves would last forever.
If consumption rises 1.5% per year and no new reserves are found, present reserves would deplete in 30 years - but consumption cannot realistically last at peak rates with reserves diminishing that rapidly.
If consumption rises 1.5% per year for 10 years and is then level for 10 years, the rate at which reserves would have to fall after those 20 years, to last indefinitely despite no new finds, is 3.5% per year.
In fact, however, new reserves are being found about as fast as oil is being used. This is unlikely to continue indefinitely, but it means instead of a drawdown of 2% of proven reserves per year, we are starting from a net drawdown of zero.
If new reserves found levels off right now rather than growing with consumption for 20 years, we will have used up 3.5 years of reserves at the end of that period, and even at the higher rate of use will have 35 years of reserves left. If thereafter use remains level for another 20 years and new reserves found decline by 5% per year, we will use up a little under 8 years in those 20 and have 27 and change left. Which means if consumption then falls 4% per year (and assuming zero added thereafter) the remaining reserves again last indefinitely.
All of which means, even on quite pessimistic assumptions about future discoveries, we easily have 10 and probably have 20 years in which total oil use can grow steadily, after which it can remain constant at that high level for another similar period. If we discover plenty, we can continue indefinitely beyond that. If we do not, we will have to conserve seriously 1-2 generations from now.
We will be considerably richer 1-2 generations from now. In real terms, easily twice and perhaps four times as rich. Technology will be more advanced, alternate fuels more developed, and if there is any shortage and resulting need to economize on the use of oil, price incentives strong.
It makes sense to see $65 a barrel oil as a reason to invest in future energy technologies other than oil. The scale of adjustment or alternatives that will be needed, are on the order of 3-4% of oil demand, a generation or two from now. There is no reason to think any of that is undoable or even particularly hard, provided we lift all senseless restrictions on other fuel sources.
Instead we are galloping ahead with entire rafts of additional draconian restrictions. Why? Because sensible adjustment is not desired, deindustrialization and the overthrow of capitalism are.
From above.
Try this link:
Lots of industry people and oil field engineers.