I'd say you're pretty much right on. There are a few lefties who are beginning to sense that Fred is a real threat(eg. Bob Beckel), but I think most of them are still assuming it'll be Rudy McRomney. Letterman, for example, is still picking on Romney.
It is amazing to observe the pathological hatred of the left for the very moderate and the very "lame-duckian" George Bush. It makes one wonder what they would do in the face of a true Conservative.
Let me take a stab at answering your question. If they are as apoplectic, foaming at the mouth over George W. Bush as they seem to be...a true Conservative might restore Conservatives to the majority overnight....the Libs would be the first party to eliminate themselves in a spasm of aneurysms.
Could happen...but of course we shouldn't wish for that....should we?