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To: Conservativegreatgrandma; Jake The Goose; samtheman; Ultra Sonic 007; Iowa Granny; Jeff Fuller
"If the Iowa Straw Poll is such a joke why do the campaigns do everything they can to make a good showing? The Straw Poll has taken on the significance the Caucus once had--that is to get rid of some candidates."

I think you have it right Conservativegreatgrandma.

I highly recommend that others read a post written by FReeper 'Jeff Fuller' who is a resident of Iowa and a keen observer of Iowa politics. The post was very helpful to me to become better informed about the great significance of the Ames Straw Poll to the Iowa GOP and the following Iowa Caucus Night. I think Giuliani and McCain are finished in Iowa.

Giuliani/McCain Campaigns on "Life Support" . . . They Flip-Flop on Ames Straw Poll

From an article published today (6/7/07) at The Politico:

An internal polling memo to Romney’s senior staff, dated May 31 and provided to Playbook last night, showed the results of a survey for the campaign of 402 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, conducted from May 29 to May 31 and with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Internal campaign polls are not considered as reliable as polls for outside organizations, even though they are often more expensive and rigorous, because the questions and results can be manipulated. But the data provide a useful window into what a particular campaign is thinking, and how it is basing its decisions.

“Gov. Romney holds a significant lead on the ballot in Iowa today, standing ahead of his closest competitor by 17 points,” the memo begins. “He has gained 14 points in the past two months while all of the other major candidates have lost ground or remained stagnant. It is clear from the data that this movement is attributable to the campaign’s strong presence in Iowa—the combined effect of our advertising, the Governor’s travel schedule, and our superior grassroots organization.”

The numbers were Romney 29 percent, Giuliani 12 percent, Fred Thompson 10 percent, Newt Gingrich 10 percent, John McCain 9 percent, Mike Huckabee 7 percent, other candidates 11 percent and undecided 12 percent. In March, the poll for Romney had showed Giuliani in first place at 24 percent, following by McCain at 17 percent and Romney at 15 percent.

“Gov. Romney’s ratings are extremely favorable in the state—78 percent of caucus-goers have a favorable impression of him with only 10% having an unfavorable impression,” the memo continues. “The governor’s favorables have increased by 10 points over the past two months. By comparison, Giuliani’s favorability rating has decreased by a net of 15 points since March, and McCain’s has dropped by a net of 11 points. … It is clear that the more voters find out about Gov. Romney, the more they like him. 72 percent of caucus-goers say what they have heard recently about the governor gave them a more favorable impression of him. By comparison, as voters become more knowledgeable about the candidates’ positions, we see them moving away from Giuliani and McCain.”

The conventional wisdom is that however it looks now, the boycott will save McCain money he needs and could wind up being an asset since he won’t be stuck defending what was likely to be a second-place finish, at best.
Politico Playbook: White flag(s), June 7, 2007


27 posted on 06/07/2007 6:31:26 AM PDT by Unmarked Package (<<<< CLICK to learn more about the conservative record and platform of Governor Mitt Romney)
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To: Unmarked Package

It is highly unlikely McCain would come in second. Of those who have expressed opinions, Tancredo has some support.


29 posted on 06/07/2007 7:23:26 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Unmarked Package

thank you for the Jeff Fuller link. Eventho it was written with a strong Romney slant, I still found it informative.


30 posted on 06/07/2007 7:34:19 AM PDT by Iowa Granny
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To: Unmarked Package
That you, Mitt?

Bookmarking "about page" for Mrs. Designer.

38 posted on 06/07/2007 7:36:53 PM PDT by Designer (Protecting and defending the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.)
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