Not necessarily true kabar. To me the key votes are the Dorgan amendment that passed 49-48 last nite and the Coburn amendment that was defeated today 42-54. The reason a number of democrats voted as they did on these votes is heavy pressure from unions in the private sector which are opposed to the guest worker and in some cases portions of the amnesty provisions of the bill. Unless those provisions are removed the underlying bill will go down to defeat. In addition some Red State Senators from Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana & Louisiana supported the latest Coburn amendment as well.
That's true up to a point. These amendments allow the individual democrats to vote the "right way" on a specific issue. Then they can tell their constituents, I voted for the overall bill because on balance it was a good bill, but I did try to change [fill in the blank] that was important to you and I will do my best to change it in subsequent congresses. The people who are pushing this bill thru know pretty much how people will vote on a particular amendment. They are willing to have supporters defect on certain amendments to give them cover with their constituents.
The reason a number of democrats voted as they did on these votes is heavy pressure from unions in the private sector which are opposed to the guest worker and in some cases portions of the amnesty provisions of the bill. Unless those provisions are removed the underlying bill will go down to defeat. In addition some Red State Senators from Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana & Louisiana supported the latest Coburn amendment as well.
I really believe that Reid allowed the Dorgan amendment to come up again so he could get Dorgan, Sanders, and some others to support the overall bill. It is running a risk to let the guest worker program sunset after five years, but will that be enough to destroy the coalition. I don't think so.
I really believe that the Dems want this bill much more than the Reps and will do whatever they can to get it passed. Reid is playing the bad cop who is threatening to shut off debate and have a vote. He is putting pressure on the Reps who support the bill to curb the number of amendments and speed the process up. Reid makes it sound like that this is the last chance the Reps will get this kind of opprtunity. We will see how the 5 PM cloture vote turns out. I suspect that it may be postponed as a deal is worked out with McConnell and Lott to see if a compromise can be worked out on the number of amendments and time allowed. Reid won't call for a cloture vote unless he already knows how it will turn out.
I have not heard Kyl, Specter or McCain say that the passage of the Dorgan amendment is a deal breaker.