“I do not even know if I care that much what Orange County collectively thinks.”
OC doesn’t think collectively. OC thinks action, business. Three million population, lowest unemployment rate in California. Four of the six most southern counties in California vote Republican. San Diego, Orange, Ventura and San Luis Obispo.
While the rest of the country talks about immigration, Orange County made news with the County and the City of Costa Mesa hitting hard in the jails, to check immigration status.
A good Republican can win California. Reagan did. Nixon did. GHW Bush did, 1988. Several Governors, too.
Collectively perhaps not red-meat conservative enough to statisfy some at FR, but nonetheless far better than the alternatives.
My criteria are 1. Ability to win (primary, general). 2. Policy positions, overall.
For me Thompson and Romney meet those requirements.
“A good Republican can win California”
I think the likelihood of a Republican carrying California is so slight, and the expense of the campaign there so great that it makes no sense. The resources should go to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota,and Michigan, states that are genuinely in play.
No Republican has won California in 20 years, since Bush41 narrowly defeated Dukakis there. Since the Simpson Mazzli Immigration bill in 1986, it has been trending heavily Democratic.
That said, I do believe that a really appealing candidate with some connection to California cannot be written off. I think Thompson fills that bill. Romney, IMHO, does not.