IMHO China will activate a carrier for the purpose of training a cadre in carrier operations. I think the Varyag represents this first opportunity, but to build a fleet of carriers to challenge the US in the Far East will require alot of resources and finances. China made one major note on the Cold War, do not challenge the US directly unless necessary, because the US will build you into the ground. China’s GDP is only $ 2 trillion while the US is $ 12 trillion. Until China has an economy atleast one half of the US or greater can China build and operate a carrier navy. Britain and France GDP is about $ 3 to 4 trillion and they barely can afford to maintain a carrier fleet. IMHO China will develop a powerful sub fleet before she will concentrate on a full fledge carrier force. Her potential adversaries are Japan and Taiwan, both island nations that are vulnerable to submarine and minewarfare. A surface fleet will have a harder time getting thru these island barriers in an event of war involving US intervention. Subs on the other hand are harder to detect. IMHO keep an eye on the Chinese sub and missile developments.
China is closer to $3 trillion.
Until China has an economy atleast one half of the US or greater can China build and operate a carrier navy.
More accurately, until China is fully integrated into the world economy. They have other priorities right now. By the time they are fully integrated into the world economy, their GDP may actually be roughly equal to or slightly greater than the US.
Britain and France GDP is about $ 3 to 4 trillion and they barely can afford to maintain a carrier fleet.
More like under $3 trillion each. China's economy is ranked at 4th largest in the world (after the US, Japan and Germany). So, they are ahead of France and Great Britain. And when purchasing power parity is used, they have long been 2nd in the world.