I don't have to look backwards from the future to know what Lincoln knew. I just have to listen to the Lincoln and his close associates to know that he realized the consequences of his resupplying Ft. Sumter would be war.
Then why was there such a heated debate about the subject in the confederate cabinet after Lincoln sent the resupply message to Pickens?
Penn & Teller used to incorporate Mofo the Psychic Gorilla in their act. I wondered why they dropped him, but now I think I know why. It has to be because Mofo’s providing channeling services for the Southron contingent.
Not would, but could be war. It is certain that the South was threatening it, should the resupply ships come, but until they lit the cannons off, there was no certainty. Perhaps Lincoln credited them with more sanity than they possessed.
Neither side was absolutely committed until Beauregard fired.