[smug]

Lincoln had to know that fighting would break out if he sent the fleet.

It is not just sending the fleet in play here. The back channel negotiations between Washington and various officials of the New Confederacy and South Carolina promised one thing and then the promise would be broken just as quick

"In a very few days after" (says Governor Pickens,), "another confidentialagent,Colonel Lamon, was sent by the President [Mr. Lincoln], who informed me that he had come to try and arrange for the removal of the garrison, and, when he returned from the fort, asked if a war-vessel could not be allowed to remove them. I replied that no war-vessel could be allowed to enter the harbor on any terms. He said he believed Major Anderson preferred an ordinary steamer, and I agreed that the garrison might be thus removed. He said he hoped to return in a very few days for that purpose." This, it will be remembered, occurred while Mr. Fox was making active, though secret, preparations for his relief expedition.

This duplicity, proved to the South that the Lincoln administration could not be trusted. The Letter to Gov. Pickens telling him that a fleet was en route to resupply Sumter was taken as an "Declaration of War" by the South.

[Non-Sequitur]

This duplicity, proved to the South that the Lincoln administration could not be trusted. The Letter to Gov. Pickens telling him that a fleet was en route to resupply Sumter was taken as an "Declaration of War" by the South.

Lamon was accompanied by Stephen Hurlbut. He sent a report to Lincoln on his findings in Charleston. Hurlbut had been born in South Carolina and knew the people very well. His report to Lincoln noted that there was nothing he could do regarding Sumter, short of abandoning it to the rebel forces, that would satisfy the rebellion leaders. He also noted that if Lincoln gave in on that then there would certainly be similar demands made to turn over Pickens and Fort Jefferson. Doing so would cost the government all credibility and most likely would be futile because Hurlbut pointed out, "Nor do I believe that any policy which may be adopted by this Government will prevent the possibility of armed collision." It's pretty clear that Hurlbut was convinced that the South wanted war sooner rather than later, either in Charleston or some other point.

[rustbucket]

"In a very few days after" (says Governor Pickens,), "another confidentialagent,Colonel Lamon, was sent by the President [Mr. Lincoln], who informed me that he had come to try and arrange for the removal of the garrison ...

Lamon says the following in his book, Recollections of Abraham Lincoln:

My interview with Governor Perkins was, to me, a memorable one. After saying to him what President Lincoln had directed me to say, a general discussion took place touching on the critical state of public affairs.

Apparently Lincoln himself had directed Lamon to say the fort would be evacuated. Lincoln later changed his mind or later revealed what he had intended all along. Right before the fleet was to arrive, he sent a letter advising Governor Pickens that an attempt would be made to re-provision the fort. However, the fleet was delayed by storms and didn't arrive when expected.

I suspect Lincoln was trying to catch the South off guard by giving so little advance warning as to cause the South to make a precipitate hasty decision to attack the fort when confronted with an armed fleet. Given Lincoln's short history of being duplicitous about the evacuation of the fort, there was no real assurance that the fleet would not reinforce the fort, despite Lincoln's claims to the contrary.

If Lincoln had intended peace he would have informed the Governor of his intention to resupply the fort with food earlier than that -- Lincoln had been working on the secret fleet plan some 8-10 days before Pickens received the letter. Nobody said Lincoln wasn't shrewd or devious.

It was also only after the fleet preparations became known that the South stopped allowing Anderson to buy provisions in Charleston.