well there are private schools from NoVA that are filling those slots, also. quite a few of my daughter’s classmates from Visitation, as well as seniors from Gonzaga, are going to UVA. and i have friends whose kids go to Bishop OConnell who got in as well. out of state students aren’t the only competition. Face it, this area, northern VA, is loaded with extremely well qualified applicants. That also factors into National Merit scholarship considerations. Kids from southwestern VA can get national merit scholarships with lower scores because their averages are lower than those from up here. i imagine that students from those parts of VA get in with lower scores for the same reasons.
You have a point there. A very good friend of mine moved her child to live with her dad and have her attend Rappahanock high school, instead of Robinson with the idea that she would stand out more at a smaller, rural school. She got into W&M, so I guess the gamble paid off; there’s no way to know if she would have gotten in from a larger pool.
To get a National Merit scholarship, you first have to have the SAT scores, and the College Board doesn't look at your location, just the numbers.
There are high schools that have never had a National Merit finalist, because none of their students have ever scored high enough on the SATs.