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We can dismiss any thoughts of civil war. Conflicts in advanced societies aren't settled that way, and a situation in which isolated urban areas are opposed to the country at large doesn't lend itself to such an outcome.

While I certainly disagree with the notion that "conflicts...aren't settled that way", methinks a major reason why we haven't seen a civil war, and may take some time to, is precisely the geographic division of urban vs. rural instead of more straightforward geographic lines. There's too many political islands involved (complicating the logistics), and the polarization is uniform enough that things may work out because there are places for varying political persuasions to stay out of each others' way.

It's when the urbans try to enforce their views on the rurals that things will get ... interesting.

The other situation, underdiscussed, is a sufficiently large area of sufficiently uniform & different political persuasion (say, California being dominated by Mexicans), simply saying "you don't rule us anymore". Should a Leftist be running the administration at the time, I'm not sure that much would be done to counter that.