Posted on 05/10/2007 3:33:34 PM PDT by dangus
By February 6, the primaries should be settled, because most states will have held elections or caucuses by then. But only six states will likely make their decisions before February 5. And "front-runner" Rudy Giuliani is trailing badly in five of them.
In Iowa, according to American Res. Group, John McCain leads Giuliani 26-19. Romney and Thompson are at 14 and 13 percent, each.
In New Hampshire, according to Survey USA, Romney has built a sizeable lead, gaining 32% of the vote. Giuliani and McCain are virtually tied for 2nd, with 23 and 22 percent, respectively.
In Nevada, Giuliani trails first place by fewer points, but is running a dismal fourth place, with only 12%. McCain gets 19%, Romney 15% and Thompson 13%.
In South Carolina, McCain is romping, with 36% of the vote, to Giuliani's 23%.
And in Michigan, Giuliani is 3rd, with 19%, behind Romney (24%) and McCain (22%).
That's three states for McCain, two for Romney, and one for Giuliani. Oddly, Rudy would get the most delegates, and McCain the fewest of those three. It could be even a worse muddle though:
Fred Thompson appears to have pulled most of his votes away from Giuliani when he publicly speculated that he may run. If he actually announces, he could pull still more away. Not only could Thompson's announcement make Florida much more competitive, but it could also lead to Giuliani finishing third or fourth in the earlier primaries, severely damaging Giuliani's ability to seem electable to primary voters.
Come February 6th, it's the states who didn't clamor to hold their elections early who may walk away kingmakers. If any single candidate walks away from February 5th with 50% of the delegates, he will probably breeze through the remaining states. But if Romney and McCain focus on grabbing different states away from Giuliani and February 5th, and all three candidates have several states, a state-by-state showdown through the later primaries may develop.
Note: Wyoming will hold caucuses on January 20, along with New Hampshire, but there have been no polls conducted in the state.
Calendar:
January 14: Iowa
January 19: Nevada
January 22: New Hampshire, Wyoming
January 29: Florida
February 2: South Carolina
Undetermined: Michigan, North Dakota
February 5: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah
February 9: Louisiana
February 12: Maryland, Virginia
February 19: Wisconsin
March 2: Hawaii
March 4: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont
March 11: Mississippi
March 21: Maine
May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13: Nebraska, West Virginia
May 20: Kentucky
May 27: Idaho, Washington
June 3: Montana, South Dakota
Source for primary schedule: National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS)
Source of polls: ARG (Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan), Mason-Dixon (Nevada), Survey USA (New Hampshire).
There are no elections being held at this point. Therefore, there is nothing to be said.
Then don’t say anything. :^D
Ooops: an exception on the sourcing: NASS shows Michigan as holding its primary on February 5.
Good post. This is why we must continue to expose Giuliani as the two-bit leftist authoritarian that he is. He cannot be allowed to gain the nomination by winning blue state Republican primaries. He must be considered non-viable long before Feb. 5.
Nice compilation. Thanks.
Good point: New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and Florida are all very purple states.
Having so many states select so early raises a huge possibility of a brokered convention—for both parties.
We’re working on it. Keep reading JimRob’s posts about this person to keep yourself fired up.
Florida will decide this nomination. If Giuliani wins there, it’s over.
What I want to see is if this scenario plays out and Rudy wins Fla. and Pa. , what will the purists do in the GOP? Will they whine, keep their ball at home and lose the election as they did in ‘06. Just let the Dems win and all the poisons will run out and then, then, then the public will see how evil those bums are , huh? Yeah that is what Claudius did in Rome and they got Nero!! Rudy is still better than any Dem. But, when the Party fumes, divides, the evil Dems will win the WH and then, oh the gnashing of teeth and wailing. Yes, Rudy’s stand on abortion is inane but his other issues are still better than Hil. Or does the Party really want her so they can pout and lose power for 20 years??
Care to explain? Why couldn’t I say, “Michigan will decide this nomination. If Romney wins there, it’s over.” Or “South Carolina will decide this nomination. If McCain wins there, it’s over”?
Frankly, Florida is to Giuliani what New Hampshire is to Romney, or Iowa was to Gephardt: the next best thing to a home state. You wanna guess why they carry Yankees games down there?
If Giuliani doesn’t win another state before Feb. 5th, and absolutely annaihilate the field in Florida, he’s toast.
I will most definitely support Rudy if he wins the nomination, but pre-emptively attacking supporters of other candidates because you expect that they will not be team players is, well, not being a very good team player. One thing you will never see from true conservatives is what “big tent” Republicans do all the time: If they can;t get their way, actively supporting the opposition.
Frankly, it’s about damned time the “big tent” Republicans suck it up and support a real conservative.
Florida is the largest state with the earliest primary. They’ve changed their date to earlier than even SC. Since it’s bigger than NH and Iowa this is the one everybody’s going to be watching.
Jeb’s people have been backing Romney, but Giuliani’s still ahead there so far. He is smart to focus on that state. With the change of primary dates the whole pre-election formula has changed.
This metaphor is overused and underthought. Those of us who oppose Giuliani don't own the ball that will deprive everyone from playing the game.
A better metaphor: we all get together to play a pick-up game of some sort. You want to play street hockey; I tell you I can't play street hockey, and suggest football instead. But you're dead-set on street hockey, so I head home. You still have all the equipment you need to play -- what you don't have are the number of people you need to play street hockey.
Is it my fault you chose a game I can't play, when I told you in advance I couldn't participate, and I suggested an alternative that we could all play? Is it my fault you couldn't find anyone to take my place? You're the one making noises that sound suspiciously like whining -- why not take responsibility for your decisions instead?
It may be that it will take HRC to rejuvenate the GOP. Without LBJ, there could have been no Nixon in 1968, but then he blew it. Without the popular Bill Clinton, no GWB, but then he blew it too. Giuliani is about as appealing as spoiled milk.
Absolutely right. I will support the Pub nominee because I know the disaster for our republic if any, any Dem is elected.
My friend, I have been voting for Pubs since 1960 and have always supported the Pub nominees. Have you??
No, I respectively disagree. The Gop would be out of power for years. Remember, it took Newt in ‘94 to break the House stranglehold of Dems there for 45 years. No Dem is worth our freedoms, security, higher taxes or lax borders. Sorry, but Rudy is far better than the Dems.
I forgot to mention that could have been no Reagan (an no O’Connor and A. Kennedy too) had not there first been a Jimmy Carter.
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