[conservative in nyc]

Of course not -- but many social conservatives and libertarian conservatives aren't thinking in binary. They'll vote third party or stay home.

I have factored that in. In many Southern and Western states, 10-20% of those who voted for Bush in 2004 could stay home or vote third party without affecting the outcome.I think you're overly optimistic about Giuliani's chances.

I am not optimistic - I am realistic. If you ask me, many FReepers are far too pessimistic on Giuliani's chances. Most recent polls show he COULD win in the general election - or that it would be close. I'm not saying that he WOULD win. But he COULD.

[ellery]

I watch the polls because it’s fun, but I don’t put much stock in them at this point. I’m skeptical, to say the least, about Giuliani’s chances in the general because of the fundamentals. I think it’s nearly a certainty that should Giuliani win the nomination, a third party will drain off his support on the right.

I suppose it’s possible that Gore could jump in as a Green, we could have duelling third parties on the left and right, and the pub and dem candidates could battle it out for 31% of the vote to win. But that seems to me like a real long shot. I think our chances are infinitely better with a candidate who can win all sections of the GOP — social conservatives, libertarians and national security folks. I think Thompson could do it, and Romney might too.

Who knows, though — my magic eight-ball isn’t very reliable. I guess time will tell.