Posted on 05/07/2007 9:32:58 AM PDT by Unmarked Package
In the first poll of New Hampshire Republican Primary voters since the GOP debate at the Reagan Library last week, Mitt Romney, former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, jumps into a breathtaking lead over Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely NH Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston.
Romney gets 32% today, measurably better than Giuliani at 23% and McCain at 22%, who tie for 2nd place. Actor Fred Thompson, who was not included in previous SurveyUSA polling of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters, but who is included in these results, finishes 4th, at 11%.
Who is Up? Who is Down?
Compared to a NH SurveyUSA WBZ-TV poll released 1/29/07, Giuliani and McCain have each lost 10 points. The two had been tied for first, 33% then for Giuliani, 32% then for McCain.
Romney is up 11 points, from 21% then to 32% now. That's a 21-point swing to Romney among likely GOP Primary voters.
What's changed?
In January, Romney got 16% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Today Romney gets 31% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Romney's debate answer on this question -- so scholarly that moderator Chris Matthews momentarily thought Romney had mis-heard the question -- appears to have resonated. But at the same time, Romney's stem-cell answer has not cost Romney support among pro-life voters.
Romney gets 38% among pro-life voters today, 19 points higher than McCain, 22 points higher than Giuliani and 26 points higher than Thompson, who are clustered far back.
Among the 60% of NH Primary voters who say they are Conservative, Romney gets 35% today, 15 points better than McCain, 18 points better than Giuliani, 21 points better than Thompson.
Giuliani's support skews young. McCain's support skews old. Romney's support is even across all age groups.
Because SurveyUSA's questionnaire in January did not explicitly name Thompson, SurveyUSA does not here produce tracking graphs, since an exact, apples-to-apples track, is not possible. However, you may access the 1/29/07 New Hampshire data here.
“Romney has only ONE strength. He has a good fundraiser working for him.”
In other words, you didn’t watch the debate?
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