You are acting as if the American public does not have a learning curve ahead of them before they punch the ballots. You also are ignoring the pull that grass-roots efforts have in an election. I am not willing to just throw in the towel today... we have many more months ahead of us.
You cannot even determine today who the Democratic nominee will be. Why do you think you should be able to determine who the Republican nominee will be?
Trying to gauge this far out how an election will be is insanity.
In the 2006 election, Limbaugh and even the President thought that the base was going to be there supporting like they always do. But, that didn’t happen. WHY? Because the power rests with the people who vote.
In the end, anything can happen. The last two presidential elections should remind us of that.