I like the fact that you don’t fall for the usual pitfall for future predictions... picking a date that is unrealistically early... but I think you’re actually over-estimating Venezuela’s stability. Zimbabwe, the bread-basket of Africa, collapsed just a few years after the farms were taken. I’ll say Venezuela gets crunched in about 2013-2015.
I saw how long it took for Poland to throw off the Communist yoke first-hand. I have no illusions about how long it may take the people of Venezuela. Chavez has China backing him up just as the Polish Communists had CCCP backing them up.
As for the fuel situation...I just have a hunch...nothing really concrete to back it up...