What were those assumptions of yours - I am honestly curious.
Mainly to do with the field of candidates at the time and the possibility of another candidate emerging later.
I was criticizing Rudy & Romney and when their fans demanded I reveal my candidate I said I expected one or more strong dark horse (conservative) candidates to emerge to fill the vacuum on the right. That Rudy McRomney would ultimately not have staying power due to their glaring weaknesses; however, that the "moderates" in the GOP see this as their time and won't go down without a fight; that mucho money and an early start would not be the prerequisites people considered it, in this the information age; that the candidate and his message were paramount.
Obviously much of that is yet to be determined, but I think it has and will hold up well.