The Thompson Effect

NationalJournal.com ^ | May 1, 2007 | Charlie Cook

[Josh Painter]

If the 'inside the Beltway' conventional wisdom is to be believed, actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson will jump into the Republican presidential nomination fight before too long, filling a vacuum that many have long sensed in the GOP race.

So if Thompson does enter the race, who would it hurt? Two recent polls -- one by Peter Hart and Neil Newhouse for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal and the other by RT Strategies for the Cook Political Report -- indicate that Thompson's candidacy would draw most from former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, perhaps about 4 to 6 points. He would draw minimally, if at all, from Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Thompson would start out behind Giuliani and McCain and about even with Romney...

Considering that the margin of error for the Republican primary sample is more than 5 points in each poll, it is clear that Thompson's 12 percent doesn't come at the expense of any one candidate but might come from front-runner Giuliani more than the others. This might be an affirmation of the view of many analysts that Giuliani's lead is inflated by his 9/11 performance and is less durable than the support of other candidates in the race...

If you assume that Thompson enters the GOP race and that Gore stays out on the Democratic side, the data would suggest that both contests will continue to flatten, that the gap between the front-runner and the third-, fourth- or fifth-place candidate will diminish, creating more of a contest. Clinton and Giuliani are still on top of their respective fields, but their leads are somewhat more precarious than they appeared a couple of months ago...

[streetpreacher]

So if Thompson does enter the race, who would it hurt?

A few RINO FReepers that want their blue blood country club back.

[Bobbisox]

FredHead PING! PING! PING! PING! PING!

[Petronski]

Fred is for amnesty (”aspiration of citizenship for illegals”) and I can never support him.

Fred just sent me an e-mail. He says despite this setback, he will press on without your vote.

[SE Mom]

pppffttt...

[Shelayne]

Actually Fred Thompson spoke out emphatically about this on Neil Cavuto’s show. He has NO designs on the vice presidency. None.

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

Hey ditter, 12:01 am eastcoast time.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

For those who are not supporting Thompson because of his issues of securing the borders need to watch this video.
I believe Thompson is serious in getting our borders secured.

[Reagan Man]

Caught the RudyShill Sean Hannity interview FredT tonight.

Fred looked good and sounded great.

If he draws from Rooty Ghouliani the most, that is also great.

Let us know you’ll be running, Fred. ASAP

[Prophet in the wilderness]

" This talk about his candidacy is just a ploy to help his buddy McAmnesty (to beat Guliani). Fred is after VP title. He has no grass root organization, no money and no name recognisation outside GOP base (minor part in liberal TV serie does not make him well-known). Fred is for amnesty (”aspiration of citizenship for illegals”) and I can never support him. " ........
That will be a lot of hot air when Thompson announces that he is running for President and is the leading candidate in a month after he announces.
I wonder what new re education propaganda will you have next ?

Thompson/Hunter ..... the only common sense choice for 2008.

[Moonmad27]

As a Thompson potential voter, when I see terms like McAmnesty, Rooty and Ghouliani, I’m reminded of a quote from Chuck Swindoll: “Sometimes we forget who the real enemy is. He tells the story about Andrew Jackson. Before becoming the 7th president of the United States, he served as major general in the Tennessee Militia. It was during the War of 1812 that his troops reached a low point in their morale. They began fighting among themselves. According to historians, Old Hickory mustered the troops and said to them, “Gentlemen! Let’s remember the enemy is over there!”

The enemy is over there, folks - and she’s wearing a black pantsuit.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>The enemy is over there, folks - and she’s wearing a black pantsuit.

The enemy of conservatism, is liberalism.

A vote for Rudy is a vote for liberalism.

[nowandlater]

4 to 5 way race. I called it months ago! Fred will surge, but this thing will turn into a region by region fight. This is quite fascinating.

[Politicalmom]

He already said NO AMNESTY.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

Ok,,, I won't agree or disagree with you until I look and watch that video of were you say he said it, but, from what I have read, some said that he was talking about " Legal Aliens "

To be honest ? you, I , others, and the politicians don't really have a good solution with the problem, or some don't have the political will.
I don't know were the miracle is going to come from, but, we have to be honest, what are we going to do with the 15 - 20 million who are already here ? can we really deport them ? ,,, I don't know.
Yes, they are illegal and they all should be made to go back or deported.. but, there are 15 - 20 million of them, easyer said than done.
I hope those who are " Single Issue Voters " can look at the big picture, there is never going to be a prefect candidate whom you or I will 100 % agree with, but, we can come close.
I originally wanted Hunter as President, but, his chances don't look to optimistic, it would be great that we can have a THOMPSON/HUNTER ticket.
Some may say that Thompson has flipped flopped on campaign finance bill, and he has already said that he " Thought " is was a good idea at the time, but, it didn't turn out the way he thought it would.
Some may disagree with this, but, If Fred runs, he will get the nomination, and we need to support him, even if some disagree with him on a few issues.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

Can I ask you a question ?
Haven't all of us in sometime in our lives made choices, believed in something, had a idea, but, over the course of time saw that it might have been wrong and went in another direction and stayed that course and never turned back ?
What I mean is, I believe that Fred was sincere in what he believed back then and was trying to clean up the corruption in the political campaign finance mess, but, it turn out to be a different monster than what was intended.
In contrast, look at the Democrats/Liberals, and when what they believe, they go with the wind because of political expediency, what ever is convenient, we can see right through them for what they are, we can see their motives.
Kerry flipped flopped because of political expediency, Hillary the same.
Do you honestly believe that Fred Thompson was trying to help clean up the mess in Washington and the campaign finance mess ?

[EdArt]

I watched Fred on H&C. He was great. he did not talk white noise like almost every other pol.
This little mind picking should stop other wise you will have Dems in all 3 branches of gov.

Bush is not a conserv, Rudy is not either, M Rom -so so

Mac is off his rocker, Fred is the Man

[rogue yam]

So if Thompson does enter the race, who would it hurt?

Evildoers.

[Oztrich Boy]

You forgot “He campaigned as a pro-choice candidate” He has cancer and is seriously ill” “the red truck was just an election stunt” “he doesn’t have fire in the belly for the job”

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

Moonmad27:

...when I see terms like McAmnesty, Rooty and Ghouliani,...

The enemy is over there, folks - and she’s wearing a black pantsuit.

-

Reagan Man:

The enemy of conservatism, is liberalism.

A vote for Rudy is a vote for liberalism.

---

Julie-Annie is a flaming socialist.