Posted on 04/30/2007 6:36:04 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Some nine months before Alabama's Republican presidential primary, U.S. Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are in a dead heat at the head of a crowded pack, although other candidates remain within striking distance, the results of a new Press-Register/University of South Alabama statewide poll suggest.
Among 402 likely GOP primary voters surveyed by phone, 23 percent said they would most likely back McCain, who represents Arizona, while 22 percent favored Giuliani, a one-time federal prosecutor who led New York City for eight years.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garnered 12 percent, followed by two prospective contenders who are still weighing whether to get into the 2008 race. Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee had 10 percent, while 7 percent of respondents opted for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.
Several candidates registered 4 percent or less.
"It's still pretty much anybody's election," USA Polling Group Director Keith Nicholls said late last week.
The poll, conducted between April 21 and Wednesday, has a 5-percentage-point margin of error.
McCain, who mounted an unsuccessful presidential run in 2000, has spent much of the last two years seeking to build a national campaign that would be seen as unstoppable. But at 70, he has been handicapped by questions about his age and his steadfast support for the war in Iraq, some analysts say.
While competitive, Giuliani is running weaker in Alabama than the nation as a whole. He garnered 33 percent support in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey taken earlier this month.
Giuliani won nationwide acclaim for his performance in rallying New York City after the September 2001 terrorist attacks. But some Alabama Republicans may be put off by his support for abortion rights and other stands that leave him to the left of some of his rivals, Nicholls said.
And in a Bible Belt state, the past turmoil in Giuliani's personal life is another potential trouble spot. Now on his third marriage, he became involved with his current wife while still married to his second. More than half of those surveyed in the new Press-Register poll ranked character and morals as the most important factor in deciding which candidate to support.
Although some GOP voters may already be aware of Giuliani's previous domestic problems, Nicholls said, "I don't think they've tuned in to the extent that they will when these candidates begin going after each other."
The issue is one that Giuliani needs to address, said Jerry Lathan, a prominent Republican activist who recently hosted a fundraiser for Giuliani at his Theodore home.
At the same time, Lathan said, Giuliani is the only GOP contender capable of beating each of the possible Democratic nominees.
"Even if you find you don't agree with him on one or two issues," Lathan said, "I'd rather have 90 to 95 percent of a friend than 100 percent of a liberal enemy."
Alabama has tentatively scheduled both its Democratic and Republican presidential primaries for Feb. 5 of next year, although the Legislature has yet to give final approval to a bill allowing early voting in Mobile and Baldwin counties because that date coincides with Mardi Gras.
It will be the first time since 1988 that voters will cast ballots before their parties' nominations are decided. While the black vote will be crucial in the Democratic contest, "social issues are immensely important in the Republican Primary," said Marty Connors, a Romney backer and a former chairman of the Alabama Republican Party.
And unlike 2000, when the GOP establishment coalesced around George W. Bush relatively early, the Republican field now is wide open and still growing. On Thursday, after the USA Polling Group had finished its calls, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore officially jumped into the race.
Despite the large lineup, many Republican voters so far appear underwhelmed, other polls indicate.
In a statewide survey taken during late February and early March, 52 percent of those sampled said their choice could change, said Gerald Johnson, director of the Capital Survey Research Center, associated with the Alabama Education Association, which conducted the poll.
Although state Rep. Joe Faust, R-Fairhope, has endorsed McCain, for example, he said in an interview last week that he could just as easily back Giuliani.
"I think both of them are good," Faust said.
Among other parts of the Republican electorate, that restlessness has fueled interest in a run by Thompson, a part-time actor familiar to many television viewers as District Attorney Arthur Branch on the NBC series "Law & Order."
But Thompson, who recently acknowledged that he is in remission after a bout with cancer, hasn't signaled that he will enter the race. Gingrich is also holding back from a decision.
If either or both ultimately decide to stay out, the question then becomes where their supporters will go. Such uncertainties hearten backers of other candidates who are currently trailing.
"Presidential elections are a lot like the Kentucky Derby," Connors said in an e-mail. "Pace horses rarely win. Look for the horse that comes off the pace."
Romney garnered only 3 percent in the AEA-backed poll, Connors noted in an interview. "I'm frankly a little shocked that he's up to double digits."
Like politicians in any race, however, the candidates will to some extent be held hostage to events beyond their control. That may be especially true for McCain, who has been outspoken in his support of the Bush administration's plan to send more troops to Iraq in hopes of stabilizing the country.
But unless conditions there improve within the next few weeks or months, Nicholls said, McCain's candidacy could become a casualty as voters decide that "he's backed the wrong horse."
McCain - good God !!!!
LOL! I’ve been saying don’t underestimate that guy. He’s being very careful this time and he’s getting alot of help. He’s very high in the polls - higher than expected!
Why is it in every story about tis poll or that poll they cite McCain’s support for the war as his one weakness, when all Republican candidates have voiced support for the war? McCain’s support is flaling not because of his support for the war, but for his continual backstabbing of the party’s base.
It could also be argued that Rudy’s high polling is due to his support for the war.
The battle in the South will be very very interesting. I still think the wheels are falling off the McCain bus. He should be higher at thsi point.
**”Even if you find you don’t agree with him on one or two issues,” Lathan said, “I’d rather have 90 to 95 percent of a friend than 100 percent of a liberal enemy.”**
More like a 5% to 10% friend to 100% enemy.
You should see what's been posted on Free Republic about his record then.
Socialistic Darwinism is the method wherein the strong devour the weak. For example, Socialistic Darwinism is the kind of class-conscious politics practiced in sinkholes like the Middle East.
Giuliani believes in confiscating the guns of law-abiding citizens (while viscious criminals gun-down unarmed Americans); Giuliani espouses the killing of the helpless unborn as a "convenience" to advance "women's rights."
Giuliani at the levers of the US government would mean the end of our freedoms, the destruction of our Nation, and the installation of Socialistic Darwinism.
Ghoulini is a dangerous man!
There is no doubt that some people there are a tad bitter over being banned from a site they contributed to, and were welcomed on, for many years.
I am there because I like MadIvan, and because I want to talk to people I can no longer talk to here. If that is setting you off, well, I am sorry but that's the way it is.
You guys are totally obsessed with that website. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is? If you don’t like the Rudy threads don’t go on them please.
Did you ever think that maybe that site would not have ever been in existence if the stupid purging didn’t go on? Do you know that the FR purge was all over the internet? How embarrassing is that? Things are starting to calm down here a bit I hope. You are not helping it though. AND BY THE WAY - ITS CALLED FREEDOM! Marvelous thing isn’t it?
Don't know. Don't care.
Do you know that the FR purge was all over the internet?
Don't care.
How embarrassing is that?
Why would it be embarrassing? Are we supposed to be embarrassed?
Things are starting to calm down here a bit I hope.
Now that many of the people who tried to boost Rudy by intentionally telling misinformation about his record - while simultaneously trying to tear down other conservative candidates like Fred Thompson or Duncan Hunter with lies and untruths - are gone? Yes, things are calmer.
You are not helping it though.
Ignoring or whitewashing the liberal facets of a candidate's record this early out doesn't help conservatives. Your point?
AND BY THE WAY - ITS CALLED FREEDOM! Marvelous thing isn’t it?
Says the supporter of Rudy Giuliani, who has no problem infringing upon the Constitutional rights of his constituents.
You have the freedom to support Rudy. Just be honest about his faults. Don't tell lies about him or other conservatives like many of the people who got banned did.
Well thank you for your post and explanation. Also please realize that not ALL the posters there are ex-Freepers. There are others there who have never posted on FR before and from what they have seen here “like the post below yours” will never even want to come here because of that. They do not understand why they would be slammed for liking their choice in Republican candidate which in this country is everyone’s right. But that being said. I appreciate your explanation and my apologies for jumping on you so quickly.
Thank you for your reply. I have to admit I was prompted to repost the comment by WA user “Duke” this morning since it set off alarms bells and frankly some anger. If I were a Mod over there I would have removed that comment in short order. BTW, I now know that “Duke” is a Freeper and will do all I can to avoid him if he/she appears on FR again. I chose not to ping him to this post for that reason.
Please ping me if you refer or talk about my posts.
They do not understand why they would be slammed for liking their choice in Republican candidate which in this country is everyone’s right.
People were being 'slammed' for;
A) Tearing down other conservative candidates to make Rudy look better, or,
B) Lying or spreading misinformation about Rudy's record.
I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights, Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions. “No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing,” he responded. Source: CNN.com, “Inside Politics” Dec 2, 1999 http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Rudy_Giuliani_Abortion.htm
ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES (November 14, 2006)
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: I'm pro- choice. I'm pro-gay rights.KING: Giuliani supports a woman's right to an abortion, and back in 1999, he opposed a federal ban on late-term abortions.
GIULIANI: No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing.
KING: Immigration could be another presidential landmine. Back in 1996, Mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants.
JEFFREY: He took the side of illegal immigrants in New York City against the Republican Congress.
KING: Giuliani opposes same-sex marriage but as mayor, he supported civil unions and extending health and other benefits to gay couples. He also supported the assault weapons ban and other gun control measures opposed by the National Rifle Association.
GIULIANI: I'm in favor of gun control. I'm pro-choice.
Republican Big-Wigs Support Pro-Abortion Event in NY
Pro-abortion Governor George Pataki and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also supports unrestricted abortion, are co-chairs of the 2000 Choice Award Presentation to be held on May 30 at the St. Regis Hotel in New York City. The event is sponsored by the Republican Pro-Choice Coalition, a group that is campaigning for the removal of the pro-life plank from the Republican National Platform.
http://www.nationalreview.com/murdock/murdock200503010743.asp
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