Abramowitz: Major Political Clash in Turkey between ‘Secularists’ and ‘Islamists’

Council on Foreign Relations ^ | 4/27/2007 | Bernard Gwertzman

[AdmSmith]

In the latest election the result was:



A comparison of the seats these parties held in the Turkish Parliament before (Oct 27) and after Nov 3, 2002: MHP (National Movement Party, 57th government partner) 124 vs. ZERO.
DSP (Democratic Left Party, 57th government senior partner) 58 vs. ZERO.
ANAP (Motherland Party, 57th government partner) 71 vs. ZERO.
DYP (True Path Party) 81 vs. ZERO
YTP (New Turkey Party) 58 vs. ZERO
SP (Felicity Party) 46 vs. ZERO
AKP (Justice and Development Party) 59 vs. 360
CHP (Peoples Republican Party) 3 vs. 190
TOTAL in Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM): 550

http://www.allaboutturkey.com/parti.htm

The 10 % limit makes the party landscape somewhat volatile.

This is probably a good idea:

Erdogan's proposal for holding snap elections has caused a stir among political parties, which accelerated their efforts for concluding pre-election cooperation. Young Party (GP) Chairman Cem Uzan paid a visit to former President Suleyman Demirel to request him to take the initiative for election cooperation, which may become an alternative to the government, while the party's Deputy Chairman and Istanbul deputy Emin Sirin proposed that Baykal cooperate in the approaching general elections. Sirin said: "If the current state of affairs in Turkey makes it obligatory for us to enter the parliamentary elections on the CHP's lists without losing the party identity, we are ready to do it as a sacrifice."

Emin Sirin said the GP can cooperate with the DYP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) as well. Sirin will meet with Baykal again in the future.

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=44804

More than one ego has to be reduced for the benefit of Turkey.

[AdmSmith]

Metropoll Strategic and Social Research Center conducted research on "Political Conditions in Turkey –April 2007." The research shows the highlights of Turkey's political picture and it is very important to analyze the results of the study. If the general elections were held today, only the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Republican People's Party (CHP) will be able to surpass the 10 percent threshold to enter Parliament. As of April, the AKP's vote is at 31.6 percent and the CHP's is at 14.2 percent.

With no other party able to pass the election barrier, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) trails the other two parties with 7.5 percent of the vote. While the True Path Party's (DYP) vote is at 4.7 percent, the Motherland Party's (ANAVATAN) is at 3.2 percent. The total votes of the two parties who continue their efforts to unite are at 8.3 percent. The Young Party's (GP) vote is at 4.7 percent and the Democratic Left Party's (DSP) is at 3 percent. The research shows that CHP, which raised its votes 1.3 percent due to its opposition to AKP during the presidential election process, will profit in elections. Professor Özer Sencar of Metropoll said the increase of supporters for the main opposition party takes root from CHP's leader Deniz Baykal's strong opposition against AKP. DYP and MHP lost votes due to their passive attitudes during the presidential election process. Other independent research illustrates that three or four parties will be able to surpass the 10 percent threshold to enter Parliament.

According to the research, AKP, CHP, MHP and probably DYP - if they unite with ANAVATAN - will enter Parliament. The research argues that if the Constitutional Court annuls the presidential elections, AKP, who will act as an aggrieved party, would increase its supporters and would poll at 40 percent of the votes. Thus, the election campaign could stand on the secular-anti secular axis and only two parties, AKP and CHP would pass the election threshold. All the research shows that the political picture in Turkey will not change, if Turkey goes to election today.

As Turkey's former president Suleyman Demirel stated, "Twenty-four hours are a very long time in politics." It will be better for us to assess research results by not forgetting these cyclical factors and developments. Ankara is marching rapidly toward elections. How will Turkey's future be shaped by the presidential elections process? Which parties will pass the election threshold? We all see them.

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=71823

[DarthVader]

“The Turkish military has expressed concern about a disputed presidential election, and indicated that it is willing to become more openly involved in the process.”

= Threat of a coup d’etat if the Islamacists try to take over and impose their views. There were large demonstrations this past week in Istanbul sponsored by the Army. Muzzies better watch their step as the spirit of the Turkish state of Gamal Attaturk still burns bright in the lives of a majority of Turks.

[SunkenCiv]

Turkey will have fewer problems if the army simply rounds up all the mullahs and hang them, leaving the carcasses up there to be picked apart by buzzards. But I don’t think that will happen.

[AdmSmith]

LOL! No, the islamists in Turkey are not of the same brand as the one in Pakistan or Iraq.

Talking about buzzards:

“Later that afternoon father and I went to see a ‘Tower a Silence.’ The tower lies on top of a small barren hill on the south side of town. It’s like a bug round brick well, with a diameter of approximately 50 meters. The high priests would take the body of the deceased up to the tower and lay it out for the vultures to pick clean. The Zoroastrians believe that burying the body is to pollute the earth and cremation is strictly forbidden, as the body will pollute the sacred fire. It is said that if the vultures pick the left side of the face off first the deceased goes immediately to heaven. If it is the right the deceased spends a hundred years in purgatory.”

http://seanpaulkelley.com/?cat=13

[SunkenCiv]

Yeah, excarnation... in the 1990s there was growing concern that the number of birds had declined and couldn't handle the business, too many Zoroastrians were dying.

All consuming faith: To keep an ancient custom, India's Parsees need to protect their vultures
by Debora MacKenzie
New Scientist
5 August 2000

Parsees are the religious descendants of the Zoroastrians of ancient Persia. They believe that earth, water and fire are sacred and must not be defiled by corpses. So they put their dead in funerary sites where hundreds of griffon vultures perform the disposal job. The funerary site of the prosperous Parsees of Bombay is known as the Towers of Silence, a well-known landmark in the city next to the Hanging Gardens Park on upmarket Malabar Hill.

But vultures from the griffon genus have all but disappeared across much of India over the past few years (see p 32). Poisoning with the insecticide DDT, widely used in India, was initially suspected. But that would be unlikely to affect only one genus of vulture, or to cause such an abrupt and widespread die-off, says Andrew Cunningham, a veterinary pathologist with London's Zoological Society. A more likely culprit is infectious disease, and last spring Cunningham found signs of viral infection in some vulture carcasses.

[a_Turk]

This is not really so much about secular vs islamic. “Moderate” Islam is supported by the USA in Turkey to serve as some sort of “see it work” example for the arabs. That makes these guys US stooges. At the same time they are also owned by the EU due to their aspirations to join. All of which says that they will surrender Turkish interests in our sphere of influence (Cyprus, caucasus, Irak, etc.) and renders them detremental to the future of the state. These guys are yours and eu stooges and must not be in a full political control position.

[AdmSmith]

Here is an interesting analysis by Jurgen Gottschlich:

In December 2006, after an already tough negotiation process, the EU decided to postpone negotiations on eight important chapters until Turkey opened its ports and airports to Greek Cypriots. As a result, the AKP made a strategic decision: it would shift its focus away from the EU and shore up its power at home.
Erdogan had long hoped to win future elections as the politician who had paved Turkey’s way to Europe. But after the EU’s decision in December, it became clear to him that the European ticket would no longer score him any points with the voters. On the contrary, Europe’s rejection would ultimately backfire on him. That meant an end to his hope that the traditional tensions between the country’s opposing camps would be gradually overcome by the advance towards Europe and a general increase in prosperity. So from the start of this year, the AKP’s policy changed to one of securing power.

Although the Turkish president does not have executive power, he can intervene in the legislative process and by appointing significant officials play a much more active role than, for example, his German counterpart. Control of the presidency would give the AKP control of the bureaucracy and thus ensure its long-term power. It is also for this reason that the opposition wants to prevent the AKP from completing its takeover of the country’s top positions at all costs. Although its opponents have long accused the AKP of only serving its clientele, this has really only become the case as the chances of EU membership have declined. That is true on both sides: if the military had seen EU membership as a realistic possibility, it would have never threatened a putsch.

As it is, Turkish politics and society have been thrown back on themselves and are reacting in an all too familiar way. Neither side will give an inch; both think that it is the other who should make the compromises. A change is not to be expected in the foreseeable future.

http://www.qantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-301/_nr-87/i.html