every R gets auto 40% of vote ... ditto the D. the fight is always for the 20% of the voter ... many of whom pay no attention to politics. exceptions to 40/40 were Perot first time (19%) C (44) B(37) and 64 Goldwater (37% - I think).
H will very very likely win NY ... u should assume that unless the election is a complete landslide. I think NY has only gone R once in 80 years or so.
RG can make NY close and force her to spend time and money there. RG will spend big in NY media market because that also covers NJ, Conn and NE Pa.
IN California H will only be a slight favorite up but that also forces H to spend lots of time and lots of money to defend. An enormously expensive media and organizational state but 20% of the electoral votes you need to win.
RG (just like Bush both times) needs neither state to win but if he wins California, H can’t win the election - almost impossible.
when u get to the normal other Dem states that are imperiled, that is where it gets very problamatic for H.
however anyone that discounts her appeal to women (particularly single); the organization they have; her debating skills and the mucho money they will raise would be very foolish. like her or not she is a very accomplished politician.
the left wing 527’s will also spend unimagined amounts of money on her behalf
Rudy couldn't even outpoll Hillary in the 2000 NY Senate race when he was mayor of NYC and she was a carpetbagger.