Posted on 04/23/2007 6:55:28 AM PDT by deport
Posted on Mon, Apr. 23, 2007
GOP gears up for straw poll
STAR-TELEGRAM STAFF WRITERTexas GOP officials say they will invite all Republican presidential contenders to the first-ever Texas Straw Poll, hoping they will come and campaign before the vote.
The Texas poll, to be held in Fort Worth over the Labor Day weekend, follows the Aug. 11 Iowa Straw Poll, which is watched nationwide as an early gauge of candidates' support.
"Different candidates will be looking for any opportunity to raise their profile," said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. "We know from the expectations game that if there's a candidate who is supposed to be ahead and doesn't do well in the straw poll, it could hurt them.
"And if someone isn't doing well, but does well in a straw poll, it could give them momentum."
Straw polls
Candidates and political pundits watch the results of these straw polls.
Some observers say the polls, which are not binding, can send a message to voters.
"Anything that signals strong support before votes are actually cast is a good thing for candidates, to give fundraising and campaign momentum," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
Several Republican presidential hopefuls have said they will travel through Texas during their campaign, but have yet to agree to attend the event.
Some political observers are skeptical about the poll and say it will have little lasting impact.
"First of all, it's wildly optimistic to think 12,000 people will go to Fort Worth to cast a ballot when we have a party primary coming up," said George Edwards, a distinguished professor of political science and a specialist in presidential studies at Texas A&M University. "You're having a primary next year.
"That's where the votes are," he said. "A straw poll is not going to be a big impact or influence votes. Almost no one who goes to the polls in February will know the result of a straw poll six months before."
Others say the impact of the straw poll on the race -- and whether it can draw candidates here -- is still up in the air.
"Straw polls sometimes attract lots of attention from the media and the candidates ... while others are a bust," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Who knows why? Candidates actually hate straw polls.
"They can waste millions of dollars and not get a single delegate vote," he said. "We'll have to see about the Texas vote. Since Texas has no favorite son ... maybe the candidates will flock to the Lone Star State."
The Iowa Straw Poll in 1999 hit a record, with 23,685 ballots cast, giving then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush's presidential bid a boost. He won the poll with 31.3 percent of the vote, followed by Steve Forbes, who drew more than 20 percent.
There was no straw poll in 2003, officials with the Republican Party of Iowa said, because there was not a "serious contender" opposing Bush.
Getting ready
The poll is months away, but officials are working hard on the event, which is expected to have a $1.3 million impact on Fort Worth. The gathering includes workshops, training and rallies.
They have already invited candidates, reserved blocks of hotel rooms and the Fort Worth Convention Center, and have started working on information packets.
A list of eligible attendees has been developed: about 41,000 people who were delegates or alternates to at least one of the past four Republican state conventions or one of the last two GOP National Conventions. Organizers say they hope to draw between 12,000 and 15,000.
Last year's Texas Republican Party state convention in San Antonio drew more than 10,000 delegates; last summer's Texas Democratic Party state convention in Fort Worth drew around 6,000.
Local officials say this is the type of event they want to bring to Fort Worth.
"This will benefit our city," Fort Worth Mayor Mike Moncrief said. "It will give us national exposure and give us a chance to demonstrate that we are not only a national but international destination and a desirable place to host events."
2007 PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL IN FORT WORTH
Who: Attendees must have been delegates or alternate delegates to at least one of the past four Republican state conventions or one of the last two Republican National Conventions.
What: A nonbinding straw poll to informally gauge public opinion about who should win the party's nomination.
When: Aug. 31-Sept. 1
Where: Fort Worth Convention Center, 1201 Houston St.
Cost: Delegates who pre-register online before Aug. 24 pay $50. In-person registration costs $75; guests pay $25. Preregistration starts June 4 online at www.texasgop.org.
Source: Texas Republican Party
Anna M. Tinsley, 817-390-7610 atinsley@star-telegram.com
I want to be a delegate. This would be fun maybe we could get Duncan Hunters campaign off the ground.
I’m wondering at this point whether $50 x2 is worth the money, time, and gas, at $2.80 average, is really worth it...
I’m weighing this against moving dirt, cutting back growth on our new house lot 100 miles to the east of this “meeting”...
The only names I’m looking for, if we go, would be Hunter and Thompson...
Those two guys really could win this right now if they went ahead and decided who was going to take the lead on the ticket in ‘08...That arrangement, if possible would dessimate all challengers and opposition from the other party...IMO...
You know, all this is, is a party “pre” primary, designed to send a signal to those in the race who don’t get good numbers form this to bow out before the primary...
Guess I’ll have to read up and see if this is really as important as they are making it out to be...
echhhh, my cynical side is coming out this morning...Sorry...
It gives GOP delegates in Texas an opportunity to confirm or refute the measure of support that we only judge by Q1 fundraising totals thus far (see below). I believe the finish in the straw poll will be very different than the ranking in the Q1 fundraising judging by the straw poll results from South Carolina.
Q1 Fundraising Totals in Texas
Giuliani $2,195,500
Romney $1,070,550
McCain $1,007,100
Paul $ 63,676
Huckabee $ 61,450
Hunter $ 49,400
Tancredo $ 26,470
Brownback $ 13,225
Gilmore $ 2,300
Rudy Giuliani's Q1 fundraising was concentrated in NY (22%), CA (18%), TX (16%), NJ (7%) and FL (6%).
Thompson will win the Texas straw poll,big time.
He has to run first.
Guess I’ll have to read up and see if this is really as important as they are making it out to be...
In 1999 after the Ames Iowa event in Aug. some of the candidates began dropping out. However the top 3 or 4 depending upon if Thompson enters would still be in the mix I’d guess.
We’ll have the 2nd qtr totals by the time of the Labor Day event and also the results of the Ames Iowa event.... Money to buy booth space/location, workers to drum up the voters, etc also dictates the results to some degree I think. I agree that it will be interesting to see where Texas comes down this time around.
Thompson will win the Texas straw poll,big time.
In the time-honored tradition of Free Republic, I am basing my opinion on pure speculation.....wish I could be more helpful.
Thanks..... I thought maybe you had some poll data or something like that.....
Well Jim put up a poll recently, and IIRC, I thought Thompson was on there...He may have gotten high marks...Along with Hunter and Tancredo...
But you all know as well as I do this is also a gauge to see how well the national Republican party has done their job to beef up Rudy, Mitt and John...If they show poorly, then we’ll see a hardening of hearts and the secondary tier will either wither away, or be bolstered by the grassroots, more than what the national party can push us into...
I can already see ‘08 becoming a real pill for us to swallow...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.