Sarko gave voice to those concerns about insecurity, illegalk immigration, and violence.
Many people voted for Sarko because there was no longer a need to vote for le Pen. Their voices were heard by Sarko without the hate, racism, and antisemitism of le Pen.
“Many people voted for Sarko because there was no longer a need to vote for le Pen.”
That is precisely it. Imagine if Chirac had had his way and Dominque de Villepin had beent the UMP candidate instead of Sarkozy. Le Pen would have been in the runoff again, because of the crime and lawlessness. Le Pen versus Royal, Royal would have won, but it would have been much closer than Chirac versus Le Pen, because Royal cleary cannot lead France anywhere good, and cannot control crime at all. Le Pen offered that.
But this is why Sarkozy is such a good intervention. He talks with all of the common sense of Le Pen on crime and immigration, but does not have the baggage. Sarko has been careful too: he has not alienated Le Pen. He has not treated him like gardbage. Sarkozy knows that to win the Presidency, he has to have the votes of the Front National. Le Pen responded favorably to Sarkozy’s politeness too, especially since he’s getting his key policies by way of Sarkozy, and he may even get proportional representation. Therefore, expect the FN to show good party discipline and come out en masse for Sarkozy.
And the UDF? People like me, who are generally UDF because we believe in economic sanity and moderate laws, will vote for Sarkozy because France needs law and order. The more left will vote for Royal.
I do not believe that the UDF will split 50/50. UDF voters are not economic socialists; they are more conservative in the sense of favoring rational markets. I think UDF will be more 60/40 for Sarkozy. Villiers will go for Sarkozy. The Communists of various stripe will all go for Royal. And because France is essentially a family-oriented conservative country which is, right now, particularly disgusted with criminality and lawlessness and danger, that means Sarkozy will be the next President. Because the Right currently controls Parliament, Sarkozy will get his “100 Days”, although if the Left wins Parliament in June (they won’t) the 100 Days will end abruptly.
My hope is that Sarkozy reneges on Affirmative Action. That is the most direly catastrophic element of his electoral platform. If, with the Crown, he contents himself with busting heads, things will turn out better.