Could be, but I doubt it, seems to be from a lot of backing candidates who are not fairing well in the polls.
It's certainly doing damage to this forum. A lot of folks have been turned off by some of these threads, or wilted into lurk mode, or simply just left altogether. I guess to a few, that's what's called "building the conservative movement", by turning it into a permanent minority, irrelevant coalition.
As far as polls...it’s early, politics happens fast starting very soon
As for your other analysis...not likely, this site will do fine and will continue to be a leader for the conservative movement.