Gallup's Pulse of Democracy Election 2008 (New Poll)

Gallup ^ | 4/18/07

[areafiftyone]

Gallup's Pulse of Democracy

Election 2008

There are clearly developed presidential front-runners within each major party. On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is the clear leader, maintaining a double-digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama. On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has emerged as the front-runner -- although the lead he enjoyed in February and early March has diminished. Sen. John McCain remains in second place among the Republicans.

There has been no significant sign of movement yet from the second tier of announced candidates in the Democratic Party. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained slightly in late March after the announcement that he would continue campaigning despite the recurrence of cancer in his wife Elizabeth, but he is no more strongly positioned than he has been earlier this year.

Actor and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee emerged with a third-place showing among Republican candidates in late March after stating that he was considering a run for the presidency. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, along with Republican candidates Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, and Mike Huckabee, all receive 3% or less of the vote.

Two candidates who have not yet campaigned or declared they are running -- former Vice President Al Gore and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- could potentially alter the playing field. Gore has gained among Democrats, edging out Edwards for third place behind Clinton and Obama. The majority of Democrats do not consider Gore electable. Gingrich is in fourth place among Republicans. Gingrich is well known, but has high unfavorable ratings among independents and Democrats.

A number of the leading candidates this year have personal characteristics atypical to many past presidents. Clinton is a woman. Obama is black. Giuliani is Catholic and thrice married. McCain is 70 years old. Romney is a Mormon.

Voters are almost certainly aware of Clinton's gender and Obama's race, and presumably have already taken these characteristics into account. The vast majority of voters say neither gender nor race will factor into their vote. Clinton's gender may be a plus with her base of female Democrats and with female independent voters.

The effect of McCain's age, Giuliani's personal background, and Romney's religion is more difficult to predict. Research shows that each of these is a potential negative to sizable segments of voters. Being a candidate who will be 72 years old as of Election Day generates the most significant pushback, a "no vote" signal for up to 4 in 10 voters.

The majority of Republicans are unaware of Giuliani's positions on abortion, gun control, and same-sex marriage. Research shows that significant segments of Republicans, particularly more conservative Republicans, are less likely to vote for Giuliani once his positions on these issues are explained. Giuliani may have a problem with religious Republicans in some early primary states. More intensely religious Republicans in a March 2007 Gallup analysis were shown to be significantly less likely to vote for Giuliani than were less religious Republicans. How Giuliani positions himself on social issues will be one of the early campaign's most important developments.

Clinton's 97% name ID makes her one of the best-known politicians in Gallup Poll history. Her image ratings appear cast in stone at this point and have remained remarkably constant regardless of what is in the news. Voters give Clinton credit for her knowledge and expertise. Her long exposure in the White House also gives her "baggage", which some voters cite as a negative. She is less likely than other Democratic candidates to be seen as likable and in touch with ordinary people. Her favorable ratings among the general population fell in late March, and are the lowest of any of the four leading candidates. Still, Democrats see her as the most electable of the candidates. Bill Clinton is seen as an asset to a Hillary Clinton presidency rather than a detriment, even among Republicans. Hillary Clinton's gender gives her a significant edge among younger Democratic voters.

Voters are on a learning curve when it comes to Obama. His name ID has risen from 53% in December to 77% today. So far, his favorability has remained positive, although his negatives have risen from 11% in December to 24% today. Obama's great appeal to voters is his youth and freshness. He is also seen as likable. Voters also cite his inexperience as his biggest weakness. Well more than 9 in 10 voters say Obama's race would not be a factor in their vote.

Both Obama and Clinton are competing for the black Democratic vote, a minor factor in early primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa, but of significant importance in South Carolina and others. Best current estimates are that the two are roughly tied among black Democrats.

McCain's highly public support for the Bush administration's surge in troops in Iraq runs counter to the opinion of the significant majority of Americans. Republicans, however, support the surge, and continue to support the war in Iraq. This makes it difficult to blame Iraq for McCain's loss of positioning to Giuliani among Republicans. McCain's potential to win the GOP nomination is significantly tied into perceived progress in Iraq by the end of 2007.

Giuliani maintains a positive image, although by late March his favorable rating had fallen by a few points to the lowest in Gallup's three-year history of tracking his image. Still, his favorables are the highest of any candidate from either party, including a 74% favorable rating from Republicans. Giuliani gained steadily as the candidate of choice among Republicans in February and early March, but fell back in late March. Republicans consider him the most electable candidate in November.

Romney's greatest attribute at this point is that he is not well known. More than half of Republicans say they don't know enough about Romney to have an opinion. This provides him room to develop a positive image as the campaign progresses.

The 2008 presidential election will be the first election since 1952 in which neither party has an incumbent president or vice president attempting to get his or her party's nomination. This wide-open field in both parties fuels interest in the primary process in 2007 and in early 2008 and in the general election in November.

This election may generate greater-than-normal interest for other reasons as well. The Bush years have refocused the public's attention on the power of the presidency. The public is more politically polarized than in the past, and thus Americans may perceive a greater stake in their side winning. The Hillary Clinton factor may further heighten public interest, particularly if she gains her party's nomination in the summer of 2008 and is in a realistic position to be the first female president in U.S. history. Obama may be the strongest black contender to ever seek his party's nomination. That a prominent Hispanic (Bill Richardson) and a Mormon are candidates may increase voter interest. It is also possible that there will be a significant third-party presence in the election.

The war in Iraq was the most important issue in the 2006 midterm elections. All research shows that Iraq remains the most important factor for voters. The degree to which Iraq dominates the election by next year is unknowable. A scenario in which U.S. troops have begun to withdraw from Iraq by 2008 is not out of the question, as is a scenario in which the recent "surge" in troops is seen as a success. Each of these would significantly affect the presidential campaign.

Concern about terrorism will most probably continue to be a strong latent issue. The economy is always a factor in an election. Consumer views of the economy became more positive in January 2007, but by March had dropped significantly. This may partly reflect the increasing price of gas. Many aspects of the economy, in addition to energy costs, could come into play next year, including international trade, tax cuts, and income inequality. Healthcare is a rising concern to Americans, who want government involvement, but do not want a national healthcare plan. Smaller segments of voters are also concerned about immigration and social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

It's still early in the process. Poll results at this phase -- 10 months before the first primaries and caucuses and less than 20 months before the general election -- do not necessarily bear a strong relationship to the reality that unfolds in the election year itself. This has historically been true for the Democratic Party in particular. Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis, Jimmy Carter, and George McGovern were all virtual unknowns who rose from obscurity to take their party's nomination. Republicans have, on the other hand, been more likely in the past to settle on a nominee early, and stick with him.

Three-quarters of voters in March indicated that they did not yet have a good idea for whom they will vote next year. Half have not given it much thought.

Voters are as likely to say that it's actually good, rather than bad, that the election campaign has started so early. Presumably some Americans believe the grueling process exposes them to the candidates and provides better information with which to make an informed voting decision.

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former New York Governor, George Pataki; Former Massachusetts Governor, MittRomney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]

		Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007	Jan 12-14, 2007
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani		35	38	31	44	40	31
John McCain		22	16	22	20	24	27
Fred Thompson		10	10	12	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mitt Romney		9	6	3	8	5	7
Newt Gingrich		7	10	8	9	9	10
Jim Gilmore		2	*	*	*	2	2
Mike Huckabee		2	1	1	*	2	1
George Pataki		2	2	*	1	1	3
Ron Paul		2	2	1	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tommy Thompson		1	2	2	2	2	2
Sam Brownback		1	1	3	1	3	1
Tom Tancredo		*	2	1	1	1	N/A
Duncan Hunter		*	1	*	1	1	*
Chuck Hagel		--	1	*	*	1	1
Other		1	1	2	2	1	3
None		2	2	3	3	2	3
All/any		--	*	1	*	--	--
No opinion		3	4	9	8	7	10
N/A	Not asked.
	Contact Gallup for full trend.

Republican Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Newt Gingrich):

	Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007
	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	38	42	34	49	42
John McCain	24	18	22	21	25
Fred Thompson	11	12	13	N/A	N/A
Mitt Romney	10	7	4	10	6
Jim Gilmore	2	*	1	*	2
George Pataki	2	2	*	1	1
Mike Huckabee	2	1	2	1	2
Ron Paul	2	2	1	N/A	N/A
Tommy Thompson	1	3	2	2	2
Sam Brownback	1	1	3	1	4
Duncan Hunter	1	1	1	1	2
Tom Tancredo	*	2	1	1	2
Chuck Hagel	--	1	*	*	1
Other	1	1	2	2	2
None	2	2	4	3	2
All/any	--	*	1	*	--
No opinion	4	5	9	8	8
Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for their Gingrich vote

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

	Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007
	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	61	62	57	64	62
John McCain	41	39	38	42	47
Fred Thompson	19	16	16	N/A	N/A
Newt Gingrich	16	19	15	21	18
Mitt Romney	15	12	9	14	11
George Pataki	6	4	2	5	4
Tommy Thompson	4	6	5	4	3
Mike Huckabee	4	3	3	3	3
Ron Paul	3	5	2	N/A	N/A
Jim Gilmore	2	*	1	1	2
Sam Brownback	1	2	4	2	4
Tom Tancredo	1	3	1	2	2
Duncan Hunter	1	1	1	1	4
Chuck Hagel	*	2	1	1	1
Other	2	3	3	3	5
None	6	4	7	1	3
All/any	--	*	1	--	--
No opinion	3	4	9	10	9

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

N/A: Not asked

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Given your understanding of who is definitely running for the Republican nomination for president, are you generally pleased with that selection of candidates, or do you wish someone else would get into the race?

	Pleased with selection	Wish someone else would get into race	No opinion
	%	%	%
2007 Apr 13-15	61	33	7

(Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?

	Giuliani	McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%
2007 Apr 13-15	57	39	4
2007 Apr 2-5	57	38	6
2007 Mar 23-25	54	39	7
2007 Mar 2-4	58	34	8
2007 Feb 9-11	57	39	4
2007 Jan 5-7	50	42	8

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; The Reverend, Al Sharpton]

		Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007	Jan 12-14, 2007
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton		31	38	35	36	40	29
Barack Obama		26	19	22	22	21	18
John Edwards		16	15	14	9	13	13
Al Gore		15	14	17	18	14	11
Bill Richardson		3	2	3	1	4	3
Al Sharpton		2	*	--	*	--	1
Joe Biden		1	1	1	3	1	5
Wesley Clark		1	3	1	2	1	2
Dennis Kucinich		1	*	*	--	*	*
Christopher Dodd		1	*	--	*	1	1
Mike Gravel		1	1	--	1	*	N/A
Tom Vilsack		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	*	*
John Kerry		N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8
Other		*	2	*	1	*	2
None		1	1	2	3	1	2
All/any		--	--	--	*	--	*
No opinion		3	5	4	4	3	4
N/A	Not asked.
	Contact Gallup for full trend.

Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Al Gore):

	Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007
	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	37	43	42	44	48
Barack Obama	29	19	24	27	23
John Edwards	19	18	17	10	14
Bill Richardson	4	3	4	2	5
Wesley Clark	2	3	2	3	1
Joe Biden	2	2	2	3	2
Al Sharpton	2	*	--	1	--
Dennis Kucinich	1	*	1	*	*
Christopher Dodd	1	*	--	*	1
Mike Gravel	1	1	*	1	*
Tom Vilsack	N/A	N/A	--	N/A	*
Other	1	2	*	2	1
None	1	1	2	3	1
All/any	--	--	--	*	--
No opinion	3	7	5	5	4
Note: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gore supporters' second choice for their Gore vote

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?

COMBINED RESPONSES: FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES

	Apr 13-15, 2007	Apr 2-5, 2007	Mar 23-25, 2007	Mar 2-4, 2007	Feb 9-11, 2007
	%	%	%	%	%
Hillary Clinton	58	58	57	59	67
Barack Obama	46	36	42	43	42
John Edwards	32	32	30	21	26
Al Gore	28	29	32	34	26
Bill Richardson	6	5	6	4	7
Al Sharpton	4	1	1	2	1
Wesley Clark	3	5	3	3	3
Joe Biden	3	4	3	4	5
Christopher Dodd	2	*	1	1	2
Dennis Kucinich	1	1	1	1	1
Mike Gravel	1	2	*	1	1
Tom Vilsack	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Other	2	5	2	3	3
None	3	3	6	3	3
All/any	--	--	--	1	--
No opinion	3	5	4	7	4

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Given your understanding of who is definitely running for the Democratic nomination for president, are you generally pleased with that selection of candidates, or do you wish someone else would get into the race?

	Pleased with selection	Wish someone else would get into race	No opinion
2007 Apr 13-15	80%	18	3

(Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Hillary Rodham Clinton (or) Barack Obama]?

	Clinton	Obama	No opinion
	%	%	%
2007 Apr 13-15	53	41	6
2007 Apr 2-5	61	33	6
2007 Mar 23-25	56	37	6
2007 Mar 2-4	56	36	8
2007 Feb 9-11	62	33	5
2007 Jan 12-14	53	39	8

Suppose the 2008 presidential election were being held today. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton, the Democrat (or) Rudy Giuliani, the Republican]? (Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clinton, the Democrat (or) Giuliani, the Republican]?

	Clinton	Giuliani	Other (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2007 Apr 13-15	46	51	*	2	1
2007 Feb 9-11	48	50	--	1	1
2005 Jul 25-28	45	50	1	2	2
National Adults
2007 Apr 13-15	46	51	*	2	1
2007 Feb 9-11	49	48	--	1	1
2005 Jul 25-28	44	51	*	2	3

If the 2008 presidential election were being held today, which party's presidential candidate would you like to see win – [ROTATED: the Democratic Party (or) the Republican Party]?

	Democratic Party	Republican Party	Other party (vol.)	No opinion
Registered Voters
2007 Apr 2-5	50%	35	3	11
National Adults
2007 Apr 2-5	50%	35	3	12

(Asked of Republicans who support Giuliani in head-to-head match up with McCain) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support Rudy Giuliani than John McCain for the Republican nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

	2007 Mar 23-25
	%
Giuliani's handling of 9/11 and terrorism	18
Leadership/Giuliani is a strong leader	13
McCain is too moderate/too much of a maverick	10
Agree with Giuliani's views on issues	10
Did a good job as Mayor of New York City	10
Giuliani is more in touch/better with people/a good listener	8
More familiar with Giuliani	8
McCain changes his mind too much/wavers on issues	7
Giuliani has better chance of being elected	5
Giuliani is experienced/better experience for the job	5
Giuliani is honest/a straight shooter	4
Concerned about McCain's age/McCain too old	3
Other	3
No reason in particular	7
No opinion	2

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

(Asked of Republicans who support McCain in head-to-head match up with Giuliani) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support John McCain than Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

	2007 Mar 23-25
	%
McCain is more experienced	19
More familiar with McCain	18
Agree with McCain's views (other than moral issues)	16
McCain's military background/is better on defense	16
McCain is honest/has integrity	14
McCain's views on moral issues/abortion	11
McCain is more conservative than Giuliani	5
McCain is more moderate than Giuliani	3
McCain is knowledgeable	2
Other	7
No reason in particular	3
No opinion	2

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

(Asked of Democrats who support Clinton in head-to-head match up with Obama) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

	2007 Mar 23-25
	%
Clinton is more experienced	33
Like Clinton's views on issues/agenda	21
Clinton is a woman	14
Don't know enough about Obama/not familiar with him	11
Bill Clinton was president	9
Clinton did a good job in the Senate/represented New York well	8
Clinton is knowledgeable/intelligent	6
Clinton is strong/tough	4
Clinton has a better chance of being elected president	3
Race issue/country not ready to elect a black president	2
Don't like the way Obama has campaigned	*
Other	4
No reason in particular	3
No opinion	2

Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.

(Asked of Democrats who support Obama in head-to-head match up with Clinton) What are the main reasons you are more likely to support Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination? [OPEN-ENDED]

	2007 Mar 23-25
	%
Like Obama better/do not like Clinton	18
Agree with Obama's issue positions/agenda	18
Obama is a fresh face/has new ideas	13
Clinton has too much baggage/don't want another Clinton	12
Obama has a better chance of being elected president	8
Obama is less divisive/polarizing than Clinton	7
Obama's anti-war views	7
Country is not ready for a woman president	7
Obama is honest	5
Obama's leadership skills/would unify country	4
Obama is intelligent/smart	3
Obama has done a good job in Senate/represented Illinois well	3
Other	5
No reason in particular	3
No opinion	2

THE POLL IS TWO PAGES LONG YOU CAN READ THE REST HERE PAGE 2

[areafiftyone]

(((RUDY PING)))))

[Man50D]

--The New York State Liberal Party on its endorsement of Rudy Giuliani for Mayor: "When the Liberal Party Policy Committee reviewed a list of key social issues of deep concern to progressive New Yorkers, we found that Rudy Giuliani agreed with the Liberal Party's stance on a majority of such issues. He agreed with the Liberal Party's views on affirmative action, gay rights, gun control, school prayer and tuition tax credits. As Mayor, Rudy Giuliani would uphold the Constitutional and legal rights to abortion." N.Y.S. Liberal Party Endorsement Statement of Candidate Giuliani for Mayor of New York City April 8, 1989

--On the Republican Party: "Mr. Rockefeller represented 'a tradition in the Republican Party' I've worked hard to re-kindle - the Rockefeller, Javits, Lefkowitz tradition." Rudy Giuliani told the New York Times July 9, 1992

--Village Voice Interview with Guiliani: He was asked: "What kind of Republican Is [Giuliani]? A Reagan Republican?" Giuliani pauses before answering: "I'm a Republican." Village Voice January 24, 1989

--On Attending 1996 Republican Convention: Rudy expressed his pleasure when he wasn't invited to the Republican National Convention in San Diego. "If I take three or four days off from city business, I want to do it for a substantive purpose. It didn't seem to me any substantive purpose could be served by going to the Republican convention." said Rudy. Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Page 459, by Wayne Barrett

--On Barry Goldwater: Giuliani described John Kennedy as "great and brilliant. Barry Goldwater as an "incompetent, confused and sometimes idiotic man." New York Daily News, May 13, 1997 --On President Bill Clinton: Shortly before his last-minute endorsement of Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election, Giuliani told the Post's Jack Newfield that "most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.

--The Daily News quoted Giuliani as saying March 1996: "Whether you talk about President Clinon, Senator Dole.... The country would be in very good hands in the hands of any of that group." An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.

What sounded pretty good to some, until Giuliani added last week during a CNN interview that he thinks a person who believes the Constitution should be interpreted as written could also vote to uphold Roe v. Wade and that he supports public financing of abortions for poor women who want them.Twisting himself even further, Giuliani said denying a poor woman tax dollars to pay for an abortion would deprive her of a "constitutional right."

---"Over the objections of a furious Mayor Giuliani and city legislators from both parties, the New York state legislature has abolished the New York City commuter tax. The action, done to apparently affect a local legislative race in suburban Rockland County, could cost New York City $360 million. NPR's Margot Adler reports."--- NPR Report

---"Let's face it: Rudy Giuliani argued for the reinstatement of the tax,..."--- NY Sun report [Giuliani] says ruling out a tax increase is "political pandering." Newsday, August 31, 1989

"When I ran for Mayor both times, I was asked very, very often to do the following: Pledge that you will never raise taxes. I refused to do that. Pledge that you will lower taxes. I refused to do that." -- Rudy Giuliani, New York Times, October 25, 1994

Mr. Giuliani criticized Mr. Pataki’s proposal to cut taxes as “a shell game” that would hurt everyone in the state… -- New York Times, October 30, 1994

[GEORGE] WILL: Is your support of partial birth abortion firm? Mayor GIULIANI: All of my positions are firm. I have strong viewpoints. I express them. And I--I do not think that it makes sense to be changing your position.... ABC News February 6, 2000

TUCHMAN: Giuliani was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions, something Bush strongly supports. GIULIANI: No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing. - CNN December 2, 1999

BLITZER: If you were in the Senate and [President Clinton] vetoed, once again, the [ban on the] so-called partial-birth abortion procedure, you would vote against sustaining that against the -- in favor of the veto in other words, you would support the president on that. GIULIANI: Yes. I said then that I support him, so I have no reason to change my mind about it. BLITZER: All right. So the bottom line is that on a lot of these very sensitive issues whether on guns, abortion, patients' bill of rights, taxes, you are more in line with the president and by association, with Mrs. Clinton, than you are against them. - CNN February 6, 2000

MR. RUSSERT: A banning of late-term abortions, so-called partial-birth abortions--you're against that? MAYOR GIULIANI: I'm against it in New York, because in New York... MR. RUSSERT: Well, if you were a senator, would you vote with the president or against the president? [Note: President Clinton was in office in 2000] MAYOR GIULIANI: I would vote to preserve the option for women. I think that choice is a very difficult one. It's a very, very--it's one in which people of conscious have very, very different opinions. I think the better thing for America to do is to leave that choice to the woman, because it affects her probably more than anyone else.... MR. RUSSERT: So you won't change your view on late-term abortion in order to get the Conservative Party endorsement? MAYOR GIULIANI: It isn't just that. We shouldn't limit this to one issue. I'm generally not going to change my views - NBC Meet the Press, February 6, 2000

Giuliani/Clinton/Dem vs. GOP Platform Comparison
Issue	Giuliani	Clinton	Dem Platform	GOP Platform
Abortion on Demand	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Partial Birth Abortion	Supports Opposed NY ban	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Roe v. Wade	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Taxpayer Funded Abortions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Embryonic Stem Cell Research	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Federal Marriage Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Defined at state level	Supports
Gay Domestic Partnership/ Civil Unions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Openly Gay Military	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Defense of Marriage Act	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Special Path to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Tough Penalties for Employers of Illegal Aliens	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Sanctuary Cities/ Ignoring Immigration Law	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Protecting 2nd Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Supports bans	Supports
Confiscating Guns	Supports Confiscated as mayor. Even bragged.	Supports	Supports Supports bans	Opposes
'Assault' Weapons Ban	Supports	Supports	Supports
Frivolous Lawsuits Against Gun Makers	Supports Filed One Himself	Supports		Opposes
Gun Registration/Licenses	Supports	Supports		Opposes
War in Afghanistan	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports	Supports
War in Iraq	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports Weak support	Supports
Patriot Act	Supports	Supports Voted for it 2001 & 2006	Opposes	Supports

Giuliani/Clinton/Dem vs. GOP Platform Comparison
Issue	Giuliani	Clinton	Dem Platform	GOP Platform
Abortion on Demand	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Partial Birth Abortion	Supports Opposed NY ban	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Roe v. Wade	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Taxpayer Funded Abortions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Embryonic Stem Cell Research	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Federal Marriage Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Defined at state level	Supports
Gay Domestic Partnership/ Civil Unions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Openly Gay Military	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Defense of Marriage Act	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Special Path to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Tough Penalties for Employers of Illegal Aliens	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Sanctuary Cities/ Ignoring Immigration Law	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Protecting 2nd Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Supports bans	Supports
Confiscating Guns	Supports Confiscated as mayor. Even bragged.	Supports	Supports Supports bans	Opposes
'Assault' Weapons Ban	Supports	Supports	Supports
Frivolous Lawsuits Against Gun Makers	Supports Filed One Himself	Supports		Opposes
Gun Registration/Licenses	Supports	Supports		Opposes
War in Afghanistan	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports	Supports
War in Iraq	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports Weak support	Supports
Patriot Act	Supports	Supports Voted for it 2001 & 2006	Opposes	Supports

[areafiftyone]

Did you have to do that? I used up enough bandwidth with this poll that I couldn’t even post the whole thing. Why don’t you just discuss the poll?

[Bernard]

And here I was going to try a new game; in after the ping, and before the first Rudy hater. Too late!

Better luck next time.

[babygene]

Is Rudy male or female? Or both or neither?

Clearly he is liberal...

[areafiftyone]

You will never be able to - I think the best time was 26 seconds before a Rudy Hater came on. LOL!

[Gop1040]

You should really proofread it first. There’s a couple annoying typos in there. Other than that, it’s garbage.

[Bernard]

To be that quick, they must run two sessions with different ID’s on the screen and a name that is on your ping list. It is good to see that people have a hobby.

[Man50D]

Did you have to do that? I used up enough bandwidth with this poll that I couldn’t even post the whole thing. Why don’t you just discuss the poll?

It's a public forum. We both have the right to inform. There is no size limit per FR rules on posting a reply. You should direct your complaint to Jim Robinson. I'll be posting this information many more times in the future whenever there is a thread about socialist Giuliani.

Polls, especially this early are misleading at best. Some points about polls:

1. They poll a small percentage of a given population.

2. Pollsters can target a group of people pollsters know will respond in a specific way.

3. Questions can be structured to elicit a specific response.

4. Pollsters can disregard questions they deem undesirable and continue to ask the question until they get the desired response.

The majority of Republicans are unaware of Giuliani's positions on abortion, gun control, and same-sex marriage.

The list in post #4 will make some aware

[Ole Okie]

Why don’t you just discuss the poll?

My fingers get sore just from rolling past the same damn spam posted by a number of the Fredbots or Duncanbots.

A link to the spam would save my fingers from getting blisters.

[areafiftyone]

Well have fun spamming the same thing the others spam then. o originality. We've seen the chart since it's inception.

So if your guy (whomever that is) was #1 in the poll then this poll wouldn't mean a thing either? Since you say that these polls are misleading. I just wonder if you would say the same thing.

[areafiftyone]

Ahhh so That is how they do it. And I thought they just had a crush on me! ;-)

[hosepipe]

Democracy is now and always has been MOB Rule by mobsters..
Basically Tribal Law with creative tribes.. very primitive government..
Nothing democratic about it at all.. never was never will be..
Fully as democratic as any Mafia..

[Man50D]

So if your guy (whomever that is) was #1 in the poll then this poll wouldn't mean a thing either? Since you say that these polls are misleading. I just wonder if you would say the same thing.

Neither of you should assume I'm a "fredbot" or a "Duncanbot" especially since I haven't stated I favor any candidate this early. It would be foolish for any candidate or supporter to get lulled into a false sense of security by any favorable poll. That's a sure way to let your guard down and lose the primary or election.

[Peach]

I see the spamorama has not let up. And I had such high hopes :-)

[areafiftyone]

Oh I didn’t assume you were a Fred or Duncanbot. You could easily be a Romney or Brownback or even Ron Paul supporter - there are alot of them on FR. I just meant the candidate you prefer.

[areafiftyone]

LOL! Sorry to say nothing has changed Peach! Welcome to the Jungle! ;-)

[garv]

Here's the interesting things about this poll. Giuliani's numbers went down and he's stuck in the 30s. He is at essentially the same level of support as he had in January. Whatever momentum he had is gone.

The polls also shows that most Republicans still have no idea what Giuliani's positions on social issues are. Bad news for Rudy. Fully one-third of Republicans are unhappy with the current choices for president. Bad news for the big three. In the head to head with McCain, 10% of Giuliani's supporters believe McCain is "too moderate" reflecting the fact that they are unaware of Giuliani's positions.

The poll also shows that the overwhelming issue in the recent mid-terms was the Iraq war, putting the lie to all those who keep blaming social conservatives and advocating a more "moderate" (read liberal) posture by the GOP.

[Victoria Delsoul]

Great info, thanks.

Though McCain is doing a bit better, Rudy is still Numero Uno, LOL.