You have no way of knowing that any more than Kennedy does. Besides, I'm not an ends justifies the means kind of person. So even if this law actually stops an abortion or two, I still wouldn't support it. Either we stick to the Constitution and return abortion to the states or we're no better than liberals. We can't have it both ways.
No doubt the commerce clause issue will be raised in a future case. We all know why the supporters of abortion didn’t really fight on that issue.
As for the SCOTUS, I just don’t see the votes. Scalia is extremely shaky on that issue as demonstrated by his vote in Raich. His decision to join the concurrence today likely means very little given his history. Of the three dissenters in Raich, only Thomas remains on the Court. Souter would not flip-flop on the issue just because it had to do with abortion. Breyer wouldn’t either. Ginsburg and Stevens are the only two that I can see seriously flip-flopping (and no doubt somehow managing to keep a straight face the whole time). It looks to me that, at most, there are three votes for striking it down for the reasons you suggest.
Also, I doubt any lower federal appeals court is going to strike down the ban on those grounds. My hunch is that such a challenge will never make it to SCOTUS.
In the face of a clearly viable human being, you say so what?
If that child is a living human, you are saying the right to murder is a states’ right.
I don’t like where that is going to in face of the right to life, liberty, and the pusuit of happiness!
In the face of a clearly viable human being, you say so what?
If that child is a living human, you are saying the right to murder is a states’ right.
I don’t like where that is going to in face of the right to life, liberty, and the pusuit of happiness!