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The odds that Virginia's Cape Henry will be under water by 2015 - 200-to-1 at BetUs.com. Its odds for Cape Hatteras flooding by the same date - 300-to-1.

The bets are horrible on either side, but worse on the side of those who say these places will not be submerged.

300-to-1 gives you a 0.33% return over 8 years. By taking no risk, let's say you can get 6% APY with bonds/CDs - that's almost 60% over 8 years.

In fact, it would be a better idea to bet on submersion - that way, if the implied APY gravitates towards something more reasonable, you multiply your investment many times over quite easily.

300-to-1 gives you a 0.33% return over 8 years. By taking no risk, let's say you can get 6% APY with bonds/CDs - that's almost 60% over 8 years.

Who taught you math? 300:1 is 104.0047% yearly return. One hundred dollars at 300:1 nets $30,000 in eight years. One hundred dollars at 6% nets $160 in eight years as you suggest.

The math here is easy. X = rate of return

100 * (1 + X) ⁸ = 30,000
(1 + X)⁸               = 300⁽1 + X)                 = 300^0.125(1 + X)                = 2.040047
X                         = 1.040047   also written as 104.0047%

Another way to look at it is a simple table

	Value		Value
Year Nbr	Beg. Of Year	Rate	End of year
1	100.00	1.06	106.00
2	106.00	1.06	112.36
3	112.36	1.06	119.10
4	119.10	1.06	126.25
5	126.25	1.06	133.82
6	133.82	1.06	141.85
7	141.85	1.06	150.36
8	150.36	1.06	159.38

1	100.00	2.040047	204.00
2	204.00	2.040047	416.18
3	416.18	2.040047	849.02
4	849.02	2.040047	1,732.05
5	1732.05	2.040047	3,533.46
6	3533.46	2.040047	7,208.43
7	7208.43	2.040047	14,705.54
8	14705.54	2.040047	30,000.00