From what I understand, it’s not entirely a given that Northup will win the nomination. If Fletcher is renominated, the rodents could put up a 150-lb bag of horse manure and it would win. :-(
Kentucky has already elected a woman Governor, Martha Layne Collins, back in 1983, so that works in Northup’s favor.
Fletcher’s only hope is that Billy Harper splits the vote. Fletcher would have no chance of winning if it was a one on one matchup. He is polling well below 50% - a terrible number for an incumbent governor in his own party. If no one reaches 40% there would be runoff for the primary.