Political Environment Continues to Favor Democrats (Rudy Has Highest Favorability Ratings!)

Gallup ^ | 4/12/07

[areafiftyone]

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Recent Gallup polling continues to show a favorable political environment for the Democratic Party. Democrats maintained a significant advantage in partisan identification throughout the first quarter of 2007. Additionally, by a sizable margin, Americans say they would rather see the Democrats than the Republicans win the 2008 presidential election. A ray of hope for Republicans exists in that their leading presidential contenders are currently viewed more positively by Americans than the leading Democratic presidential contenders. Also, the Republican candidates are highly competitive with the Democratic candidates in head-to-head match-ups.

Party Support

During the first quarter of 2007, an average of 33% of Americans identified as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Several things are notable about these numbers.

• First, 28% is the lowest percentage of self-identified Republicans in any quarter since the second quarter of 1999.

• Despite its advantage over the Republicans, the percentage of Americans identifying with the Democratic Party actually went down this past quarter. After averaging 35% in each of the last three quarters of 2006, Democratic identification is now similar to what it was at the beginning of 2006.

• The consequent rise in independent identification from 35% in the final quarter of 2006 to 38% now, pushed that percentage to the highest level it has been since the last quarter of 1999, when 38% also identified as independents.

• The five-point Democratic edge in party identification over the Republicans is one of the highest of the Bush administration, second only to the six-point advantage in the final quarter of 2006. Prior to the Bush presidency, Democratic advantages of this size were not uncommon.

The Democratic edge becomes obvious and more impressive when looking at not just party identification, but also party "leaning." In each poll it conducts, Gallup asks those who identify as independents whether they lean more to the Democratic or Republican Party. Generally speaking, partisan leaners' attitudes and reported behaviors are more like those of party identifiers than those with no party attachment or leaning.

These days, a greater proportion of independents express a leaning toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. When party leanings are taken into account, the 5-percentage-point Democratic advantage on national partisanship from the first quarter grows to 12 points, 52% to 40%.

The disproportionate leaning toward the Democratic Party among independents has been evident since early 2005. During the first term of Bush's presidency, independents' leanings broke about evenly between the two parties.

Democrats had a slightly larger 14-point advantage on leaned-party identification in the final quarter of 2006 than its 12-point edge in the most recent quarter. But those two gaps in favor of the Democrats are the largest Gallup has measured for either party in any quarterly average since it began regularly tracking leaned-party identification in 1991. (Gallup did ask leaned-party identification prior to 1991, though not on a consistent basis. Historical data indicates that Democratic advantages in leaned-party identification even greater than the recent 14-point edge were not uncommon in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s).

Looking Ahead to 2008

Democrats capitalized on their advantage in partisanship by winning both houses of Congress in last fall's midterm elections. Now they have their sights set on capturing the White House and earning partisan control of both the federal and executive branches of government for the first time since 1993-1994, during Bill Clinton's first two years as president.

In its April 2-5, 2007 poll, Gallup asked Americans if they would rather see the Republicans or Democrats win the 2008 presidential election if the election were held today. The public chose the Democrats by a solid 50% to 35% margin.

Democrats show stronger party loyalty on this question than do Republicans -- 96% of Democrats (and 91% of Democrats and Democratic leaners) want their party's candidate to win, compared with 84% of Republicans (and 80% of Republicans and Republican leaners).

That apparent Democratic dominance does not emerge, however, when Americans are asked to choose among actual candidates. For example, when Gallup tested preferences between the two leading Republican contenders (Rudy Giuliani and John McCain) and the two leading Democratic contenders (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama), in only one of the four match-ups did a candidate have a statistically significant lead among registered voters, and that was a Republican (Giuliani) over a Democrat (Obama).

More recent surveys conducted by other polling organizations show the same general pattern -- a tight race if not a Republican lead on these general election trial heats. In fact, a Democratic candidate only leads when matched against a relatively unknown Republican candidate, such as Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson.

The relatively poor performance of the specific Democratic candidates in comparison with the generic ballot may be because, as of now, the leading Republican presidential candidates are viewed more favorably by Americans than are the leading Democrats.

Favorable Ratings of Presidential Candidates, April 2-5, 2007 Gallup Poll
	Party	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion
		%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	Rep	61	27	12
John McCain	Rep	57	26	17
John Edwards	Dem	53	30	18
Al Gore	Dem	50	44	6
Barack Obama	Dem	49	24	26
Hillary Rodham Clinton	Dem	47	49	4
Mitt Romney	Rep	25	21	54
Fred Thompson	Rep	24	11	65

Currently, Giuliani has the highest favorable rating of the major presidential candidates, at 61%, followed by McCain, at 57%. All of the major Democratic candidates' ratings hover around 50%, including Clinton and Al Gore who also have the highest unfavorable ratings.

In particular, Clinton's favorable rating has declined in recent weeks. It had been 54% in early March and 58% in early February. After she released her autobiography in 2003, her favorable rating went above 50% and had not gone below that mark until last month.

Romney and Thompson have low favorable ratings but are still largely unknown figures, as at least half of Americans are unable to give them a rating. Thompson is viewed much more positively than negatively by people who are familiar with him, while views of Romney are about evenly split.

Based on these poll results, it is unclear which party would win if the election were held today. Clearly, the political environment favors the Democrats, given their advantage in party affiliation and their generic preference for a Democratic president. But the partisan political conditions may be less of a factor in presidential elections than in midterm elections. Because Republican candidates are able to offset, if not completely overcome, the existing Democratic advantage in the head-to-head match-ups against the Democratic candidates supports this notion. However, it should be noted that these trial heat match-ups are generally not good predictors of what will happen on Election Day this far out, particularly when the candidates are not well-known.

The trial heats will become more predictive as the election draws nearer, but by that time the political environment may look very different than it does today. First, as is typical in a presidential election year, the percentage of Americans identifying as independents will likely decline and fall back below 30% in 2008, making an increase in Republican identification (or leaning) likely. The question is if any gains in Republican identification will exceed any possible gains in Democratic identification or leaning and reduce the current Democratic advantage.

As for the candidates, as Giuliani, McCain, and Obama campaign for the presidency, they will come to be viewed more as partisan figures, and their unfavorable ratings will likely increase as supporters of the opposing party will find it difficult to give them a positive review. Also, the candidates may look better or worse to Americans than they do now when they are evaluated against the backdrop of the key election issues of 2008, whether those are the Iraq war, terrorism, the economy, or another issue that emerges, such as healthcare or moral values.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 2-5, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[areafiftyone]

((((RUDY PING)))

[pissant]

You have no idea how perfect the title and your parenthetic adder go together

[areafiftyone]

Yea I kinda thought about that after I clicked the button. Oh well I guess I’ll just have to deal with it.

[pissant]

You’ll be fine. :o)

[areafiftyone]

Thanks! I'm waiting for incoming!

[veronica]

Oh well I guess I’ll just have to deal with it.

I can deal with Rudy's high favorability rating, that's for sure. :)

[veronica]

Let ‘em snarl...

[areafiftyone]

LOL! So can I! He’s looking real good!

[areafiftyone]

I got my doggie bite protection gear on! LOL!

[pissant]

LOL. Funny graphic.

I’m not worried bout you. You seem to take it all in stride.

[JustaDumbBlonde]

Rudy ... The Other Democrat

[pissant]

Rudy is riding high right now, but time is not on his side.

[Peach]

Gosh, who knew there were this many RINOs in the country :-)

[areafiftyone]

LOL! I know!

[bicyclerepair]

This crap about people not identifying themselves as pubbie means that people are simply “afraid” to admit it to morons.

[tumblindice]

“These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,008 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 2-5, 2007.”

Monday through Thursday, during day-time TV?
“Uh, could you hurry it up? Days of Our Lives is coming on, then Ninja Warrior.
Julie Anna? Yeah, I think I heard a her . . .
They ever find out about her baby? And stuff . . . (shut up Beavis! I’m gonna win a prize here).”

[areafiftyone]

I’m not worried bout you. You seem to take it all in stride.

I have to otherwise I'd be dead from a heart attack by now! LOL! And I'd have a persecution complex by now! ;-)

[CharlesWayneCT]

Favorability (favorable vs total favorable+unfavorable):

Top Republicans above all democrats:
Rudy: 69.3%
McCain: 68.6%
Thompson: 68.5%

Best Democrats:
Obama: 67.1%
Edwards: 63.8%

Rudy is the most favorable of all candidates, and still can barely beat Hillary, can’t beat Obama, and can’t pull 40% of his own party. If he’s viewed so favorably but isn’t supported by most of his party, it’s because however personally favorable he is, we simply don’t like his policies and don’t think he’d be a good President.

Hillary’s actually in better shape, she’s at the head of her pack even though she is hated.

[KATIE-O]

“....Rudy is riding high right now, but time is not on his side....”

Oh, I disagree. He is appealing to more Independents.