Gore and Kerry both won state-wide races in PA - the last time I looked, the presidential election was state wide.
and the odds of a republican winning PA in 2008 - is low.
Republicans lose statewide in PA because the metro suburbs are increasingly voting Dem. These are white middle and upper middle class voters, who frankly don’t care that much about the social litmus test issues either way. They’ll stick with a Dem even if he his pro-life (Casey), but won’t go Republican simply because a Dem is pro-abortion.
Our side tends to think that every voter is a single-issue voter on abortion, guns, gays - these metro suburban voters aren’t. So if we can’t appeal to them on other issues, they vote Dem. And the Republican margins in the parts of the state where those single issue voters are - aren’t enough to make up the difference.
BS, suburbs are not increasingly voting DEM.. you should go look at the 2000 and 2004 blue/red breakdown maps.. you’ll see quite obviously that blue areas DECREASED and have been for many cycles.
National elections are not the same as state wide, sorry, you can think they aren’t, but they are.
I don’t think votes are entirely single issue, but I do know that Casey goes and votes in an open vote with no cover for abortion, partial birth, stem cell, he’ll likely not go back next cycle, and Casey stuffed shirt and all knows it as well.
He’s didn’t vote principle, he voted practicality. When a SCOTUS confirmation comes up, he’ll have cover, because he can reject for any reason he can make up, even when its Dems opposition to their abortion stand that will be at the heart of a matter.
Presidential elections have completely different dynamics than state elections. I’ll also tell you this much about PA and 2008.. if Hillary is the Dem nominee, PA won’t even be in play. She’ll lose this state big time. She is absolutely hated here, even among live long democrats.