I think Thompson is working for the party. The party is working for Rudy. That much is clear. Yesterday New York moved up its primary to Feb 5. That means both NY and CA will be in February. Talk about setting the table for the guy...
I think, after 2006, party bigwigs figure no social conservative can win in 08. So Thompson is keeping the right at bay. Either McCain or Giuliani could benefit from this. In the end, I think Thompson is running for Veep, or AG or SCOTUS. By floating a trial balloon and not running, he will have helped whomever turns out to be the nominee.
Yes, my mention of the GOP was an allusion to that.
I like your theory. Its only weak link is that it requires believing the GOP has the street-smarts to conceive of it and the guts to pull it off. ;)
Fred is definitely acting as a counterweight against any other staunch conservative entering the race or gaining traction. His lack of ambition notwithstanding, he's having a fascinating effect on the process. The longer he stays out, the more difficult it will be for him to make up lost ground. Yet the longer he hovers on the sidelines, the more damage he does to the guys swamped in the low teens. That leaves Rudy, and his friend John McCain.
Fred's semi-presence does help McCain, in a sense, but there's no way for him to destroy McCain's enemies without doing the same damage to McCain. Now, he could undo that damage by getting on board with McCain as his Veep. A McCain/Thompson ticket (which is quite possible, given their friendship) would scramble the numbers and have everyone recalibrating.
Ultimately, if Fred wrecks all of the other contenders, it will hand the nomination to Rudy. That is clear enough, and he could easily parlay that ability into a VP slot. If Fred wrecks most of the others, and jumps on board with McCain, it would be a tough fight against Rudy, but it's not impossible to beat him. McCain may be broadly hated, but there's a lot of love for Fred out there, and it may be enough to win the nomination.
Fred's certainly a potent factor in the race, but it seems to be as a kingmaker, not as the king. I wonder who he's actually angling to work for.