Agree with all your points.
That said, we did not lose the House or Senate because our base did not turn out, give or take a few votes.
We lost independents 59 to 41, and with them went both chambers.
When the base has people to cheer for, rather than just hold their noses and vote, they talk a lot and convince the moderates to vote Republican. That’s what was missing in 06.
The conventional wisdom says to move the party left because the ‘independents’ are trending that way. This is flawed thinking. The independents sway with the wind. The wind was blowing left, because the right had nothing positive to say about what it was supporting.
Give the base someone they can be passionate about supporting and they will do the legwork to convince the independents. Give them someone that doesn’t seem any different from a ‘moderate dem’ and you’re asking for a lot of trouble.