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Thanks for your excellent post. I wasn’t satisfied with references to the 11 year solar cycle as though that said it all. I knew it had to be more complicated.

Looking at graphs of annual sunspots, I could make out a cycle but not a regular 11 year cycle.

Even with improved understanding, I suspect we will be left with a random, unexplained component to solar behavior.

Even with improved understanding, I suspect we will be left with a random, unexplained component to solar behavior.

The underlying sunspot frequency gives an approximation to the average output and unfortunately most people just graph this out with a moving average curve. I am looking at a chart I made from reported actual values of Sunspot Area (10E-6) and Radio Flux (10.7 cm) from Jan 1st 1994 to present. According to this chart the peak sunspot area and peak Radio Flux occurred during late Oct-Nov 2003, which was late in the cycle and a couple of years after the cycle maximum. And since there were some very large flares associated with this short period, the affects could have been significant. This may be why the warming lasted longer then usual for this cycle.

The affects from this 2003 short term super active period should have been assimilated by now. We should now remain cool through 2007, possible stop cooling in 2008 and might start warming again in 2009 or 2010. It all depends on the average sunspot peak of the next cycle and whether we have any of those short term super active periods. Scientists are predicted Cycle 24 should be stronger then Cycle 24 and Cycle 25 will be very weak.

Should clarify, if you only look at the moving averages, short term significant factors get lost. That has always been my major gripe with modern science. Occam’s Razor sometimes minimizes perception and observation. Sometimes the details are as important as the generalities. This is probably especially true with Solar Flares that are aimed toward us and sunspots that are located near the equator. What we need to do is determine the most significant factors and then watch the sun every minute of every day with our new instruments. General trends can then be predicted and modified by short term events. Different solar effects will also have different delay factors concerning their affects on ground temperatures. Visible light variances may have short term ground temp affects and delayed sea temps affects. UV variances may have long term ground temp affects. It will probably turn out to be somewhat complicated, but at least it is not rocket science :>.