[dirtboy]

So the next big El Nino might be the next step in the climate step function, eh?

Maybe yes or maybe no.

We haven't had a strong El Nino for some time now - despite the fact that this article claims the globe is still warming.

[cogitator]

See point #4 in my profile.

[cogitator]

Hey, a followup quick exercise; look at the second plot in point #4. Mentally remove the 1998 peak. What direction is the trend?

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Global Temperature Trends: 2005 Summation

"The highest global surface temperature in more than a century of instrumental data was recorded in the 2005 calendar year in the GISS annual analysis. However, the error bar on the data implies that 2005 is practically in a dead heat with 1998, the warmest previous year. ... Record warmth in 2005 is notable, because global temperature has not received any boost from a tropical El Niño this year. The prior record year, 1998, on the contrary, was lifted 0.2°C above the trend line by the strongest El Niño of the past century."