Posted on 04/07/2007 1:52:14 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The GOP presidential race can be summed up this way: three strong contenders and a hunger for someone else.
``There's no question that there's a very open field,'' said Ken Mehlman, a former Republican National Committee chairman. Unlike in 1980, 1988, 1996 and 2000, ``there's not a presumptive front-runner,'' he added.
The nomination fight has become even more fluid since the year began, which is unusual for a party that typically has a clear heir apparent.
For now, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has the lead in national popularity polls. Ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the most money. Arizona Sen. John McCain may have the superior national political operation.
But none has a clear advantage in all three areas polling, fundraising and organization that are traditional measures in determining which candidate is in the best position to become the nominee. Perhaps more telling, Republicans say, is that none has articulated a message or offered an agenda that a majority of the party supports.
``What's missing so far is a clear down-the-line conservative champion, an establishment candidate,'' said Greg Mueller, a GOP consultant.
Nine months before the leadoff Iowa caucuses, the fragmented field and disenchantment with the top candidates may present an opportunity for a fourth formidable contender to emerge.
That could be an underdog such as Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas or two former governors Mike Huckabee of Arkansas or Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin.
Other prominent Republicans are flirting with a run, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and could shake up the field. The latest to express interest is Fred Thompson, the actor and former Tennessee senator who, friends say, is seriously considering a bid. He is running third in a few national polls without doing anything more than acknowledging he was thinking about running.
Such buzz is evidence of the degree to which GOP voters are seeking alternatives to Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Conservatives who dominate the Republican primary see all as flawed.
In Iowa, Susan and Roger Rowland of West Des Moines are attending campaign events to find someone to embrace. Last week, they saw Giuliani one night and Romney the next. But they were not impressed enough by either to commit. They have not seen McCain and are open to learning more about others, too.
``There are a lot of candidates out there, but I don't really know what I'm looking for,'' Susan Rowland said, sighing. Her husband said, ``If I had to pick today, I'd probably pick Romney, but I'm really glad I don't have to pick today.''
The Rowlands are not alone in their uncertainty.
``Significant numbers are really undecided,'' said David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. Short of someone else catching fire or entering the race, he said, ``in a year where Republican caucus-goers are focused on electability, they may ultimately hold their nose and pick one of the three.''
It is Giuliani, McCain and Romney among the nearly dozen Republican presidential hopefuls who appear best positioned to capture the nomination.
Projecting invincibility, McCain spent more than a year meshing loyalists from his failed 2000 bid with some of President Bush's top political operatives to build what he hoped would be an unrivaled organization. Despite its depth, McCain gradually has faltered.
Last week, he announced raising a disappointing $12.5 million in the year's first three months. During a visit to Baghdad, he made upbeat comments about security only to have Iraqis mock his characterization. Before the trip, McCain drew criticism for saying some parts of the capital were safe enough to walk in freely and that the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, drove around in an unarmored humvee. He told CBS' ``60 Minutes,'' in an interview to be broadcast Sunday, that he misspoke when he made that remark.
To get back on track, McCain ordered an overhaul of his fundraising operation and better controls on spending. He scheduled policy speeches, including the first this Wednesday in which he will defend his support for Bush's policy in Iraq. Other speeches and an official announcement tour are set for this month as he seeks to regain momentum.
Once he made clear he was serious about running, Giuliani jumped to a double-digit edge in national polls. His built-from-scratch political operation is not yet on par with the others. Still, Giuliani ended the January-through-March fundraising period with a respectable $15 million raised.
He continues to lead in national surveys but his advantage has softened as he has come under increased scrutiny. He has faced questions about his business dealings and about his ties to Bernard Kerik, the former New York City police commissioner against whom prosecutors reportedly are pursuing multiple charges.
Giuliani also has had to answer for his abortion-rights stance and clarify statements suggesting his wife would play a significant role if he were president.
Romney set out to prove he was a threat by ensuring he had a stellar fundraising start. He succeeded, collecting a surprising $21 million in the year's first three months.
Yet he remains significantly low in national polls. He continues to be dogged by his reversals on abortion and gay rights, and his equivocations on other issues. He resumed television advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire to define himself. His campaign is eager to start debates, where aides believe he will shine.
Given the shifts in the field, Republican consultant Alex Vogel said, ``You have to wonder whether gravity takes hold again and conventional wisdom will apply or whether this really does indicate a new paradigm in the Republican primary.''
Let the dust settle. Once this frantic pre-election year giddiness is over, the conservative candidates can step in and provide fresh options.
This is what we have now, establishment candidates. What voters are waiting for is someone who is not part of the "establishment", someone who knows life outside of politics. Someone who can speak in common sense language that voters understand and that doesn't have to be parsed, explained or spun. I believe Fred Thompson could be that candidate.
I am a Mitt guy, but I am anxious to see Fred run too! I think it is beneficial to get as many options out there as possible and Fred is a very appealing option. In the long run, a very competitive primary will give us the strongest possible candidate and I am all for that!
I was very surprised to get my April issue of NewsMax Magazine today with a picture of Mitt Romney on the cover calling him “The Reagan Candidate”.
Hmmmmmm. I wonder who NewsMax is endorsing.
No way; this thing is over by summer.
If you truly are a teenager, as your screen name says, I must commend you. You are a very astute young man, or lady, which ever the case may be.
It gives me comfort to know that the next generation, who will be “running things” after we’re gone, has young people like you. Stay focused and don’t get sidetracked and you’ll have great success, and more than likely, be a great leader.
Thats so funny!
And Mitt didn’t even like Reagan when Reagan was president.
Now Mitt is in the habit of using Reagan’s name in vain.
Yup. The presidential race is like a circus in many ways; the clowns come out first. :)
“Let the dust settle. Once this frantic pre-election year giddiness is over, the conservative candidates can step in and provide fresh options.”
There is no such candidate. And even if there were—is he prepared to raise the millions necessary at this late date? I doubt it. But even if he were—as a conservative can he win any blue or purple states? I again doubt it. The country is suffused with Bush fatigue. The media is supportive of the opposition. The Dems this time around have out-registered the Republicans by 15%. And formerly red states are turning increasingly purple—places like OH and FL. These are the realities we face. We need to look them squarely in the eye and not kid ourselves hoping some non-existent conservative candidate is around the bend who can ignore such facts—somebody like Gingrich or Brownback or whoever. Such a candidate would lose big in the general election.
“I agree that the country is doomed to drift left forever until the Communist Party takes power here, but I don’t agree that conservatives cannot win right now. Despite what the media says, Bush, Condoleeza, Hannity, and the rest of the ruling minds today are NOT conservatives. Declaring a never-ending state of war against anybody (and therefore nobody in particular) that justifies the passage of questionably Constitutional powers for the government, paid for by massive taxation is not conservative.”
You may not think people like Bush and Hannity are conservative, my friend, but neither are you. No conservative would dismiss the War on Terror as you do. You have virtually recited the Defeatist Party’s argument.
Think about this...
I don’t dismiss the War on Terror. I dismiss the refusal to fight an actual war against our enemy, Islamic literalism. Terror is a tactic, not a defeatable ideology. Fighting against it is like fighting a war on theft; no pre-emption is possible because your enemy is defined by crimes he commits.
Those are fascinating analogies!
What should be pictured next to “The Eye” ? That pic does not download.
What should be pictured next to “The Eye” ? That pic does not download.
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