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Battle to Win Top Colleges' Nod Escalating:Future Applicants Face Array of Competitors
Washington Post ^ | 6 April 2007 | Jay Mathews

Posted on 04/06/2007 4:58:09 AM PDT by shrinkermd

The U.S. Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics says the number of graduating high school seniors will peak at 3.3 million in 2011 and decline only slightly to 3.2 million by 2016. Most educators predict that the percentage of those students going to college -- now about 67 percent -- will increase and make the application process even more stressful. Undergraduate enrollment, for instance, is projected conservatively to increase from 15.2 million this year to 16.6 million in 2015, the center says.

The number of high school graduates has increased every year since 1996 as the children of the huge, post-World War II baby-boom generation passed through. During the same time, college applications soared as the economy increasingly rewarded higher education. Federal data in 2004 showed male college graduates earning 67 percent more and female graduates 68 percent more than those with only a high school diploma.

"The economic demand for a college education will only rise," said David Hawkins, director of public policy for the National Association for College Admission Counseling. "I do not think anyone should count on an admission environment that is any less crowded than the one that we are experiencing now."

The one bit of good news...Harvard, Yale and Princeton universities are accepting only about 10 percent of their applicants, but the average U.S. college accepts 70 percent. The college drop-out rate -- only about 60 percent of students graduate in six years -- creates more space, and many schools advertise for applicants as late as June.

Studies have shown that students with similar personal characteristics, such as persistence and charm, do just as well financially 20 years after college no matter whether they went to a well-known or little-known college.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Unclassified
KEYWORDS: colleges; entrance; top
The author misses the problem. One standard deviation above the mean is about an I.Q. of 115; this represents no more than 15% of the population, but these individuals are intellectually capable of the usual academic college work. Going down to an I.Q. of 110 permits another 5-10% of students capable (with hard work) to utilize the academically inclined college.

This means that at most 25%-30% of students are capable of actual, academic college work but we are sending 67% of students! Actually, if we send 67% to college many will by necessity have IQs less than 100 since the mean IQ is 100.

As far as the trophy colleges one can predict their admission standards by simply knowing the SAT scores. They cream the upper 5% of the population. They then further refine their choices. Trophy colleges are probably successful above others because they have selected the best and most able students. Trophy colleges also result in student acquired networks and educational cachet that enables success as well.

Note in spite of taking 67% of HS students, colleges only graduate 60%. 67%x60% means about 41% of the population gets a college degree. This somewhat above what one would anticipate--30% maximum--but some students by hard work, motivation overcome their dearth of academic potential.

What we need is how to educate and train all those who either are unsuitable for college or choose not to attend. It is also true able, motivated people do well at their occupational choice with or without an Ivy League education.

It is also true that many do extraordinarily well without a college education. IMHO college statistics suggesting they are responsible for increasing wages by 68% compared to HS graduates are really measuring intelligence and motivation more than actual course work.

1 posted on 04/06/2007 4:58:12 AM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

The supposition that the ‘brightest and best’ go to and graduate from the “top” Universities is naive and erroneous.


2 posted on 04/06/2007 5:16:54 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: shrinkermd; patton
The one bit of good news...Harvard, Yale and Princeton
universities are accepting only about 10 percent of their
applicants, but the average U.S. college accepts 70 percent.


jmu, in va, and not ivy league, only accepted about 3,000
of the over 13,000 applicants for fall 2007.... :(
3 posted on 04/06/2007 5:21:16 AM PDT by leda (19yrs ... only 4,981yrs to go ;))
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

Re-read “the Bell Curve”. Murray and Herrnstein went to some pains substantiating this “naive and erroneous” statement. It should be formulated more rigorously: “tend to go” - not all of them do, but most. Those who belong in MIT, would be, and are, wasted at Outhouse College. And they know it better than anyone else, that’s why they tend to gravitate to the likes of MIT.


4 posted on 04/06/2007 5:25:16 AM PDT by GSlob
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To: shrinkermd

“The college drop-out rate — only about 60 percent of students graduate in six years ...’

What’s with 6 years? Normal time is still 4 years, unless that’s been dumbed down too.


5 posted on 04/06/2007 5:28:27 AM PDT by pleikumud
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To: shrinkermd

Yes. I was heavy on the persistence and charm. Maybe that’s why I did so well.


6 posted on 04/06/2007 5:36:17 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Beware! Pelosi is the self-appointed President of a shadow government in the U.S. Be afraid!)
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To: shrinkermd
College shmollege. Most degrees, even from Ivy League universities, aren't worth the paper they're printed on.

Outside the hard sciences, it's a vast wasteland.

7 posted on 04/06/2007 5:40:17 AM PDT by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: shrinkermd

Please, if you are from a foriegn country, preferably one that hates the US, or a “minority”, you go to the head of the line, regardless of grades, diversity is way more important.


8 posted on 04/06/2007 5:40:49 AM PDT by panthermom (DUNCAN HUNTER 2008)
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To: pleikumud

A friend who works at a college told me it’s more like 5 years now for the “average” student to graduate.

On the other hand, there are many programs that give kids a leg up on a college education: early admissions, dual credit, IB program, AP classes.

Our son’s graduating at 19 thanks to dual credit during his HS years.

As to the more than 4 years lot...my son tells me he can’t believe the number of kids that just don’t go to class. So if you don’t go to class, chances are you won’t make the grade you need to move on and will have to repeat the class...thus the longer amount of time needed to graduate.


9 posted on 04/06/2007 5:46:02 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: pleikumud
What’s with 6 years? Normal time is still 4 years, unless that’s been dumbed down too.

The average is now 5 years. Yes, the average. Many kids now take 6 years to get a BS degree, pun intended. It's not an education, it's a way of life.

10 posted on 04/06/2007 5:46:17 AM PDT by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: pleikumud
What’s with 6 years? Normal time is still 4 years, unless that’s been dumbed down too.

They probably need 2 years of remedial courses.

11 posted on 04/06/2007 5:48:28 AM PDT by Overtaxed
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To: Aquinasfan

Might be true, but tell that to many employers who require a bachelors on an entry level job.

I told my son that to the employer, college must be like a “gauntlet”...if you have enough perserverance to make it through, they figure you’ll stick with the job.

That’s the only reason I can figure that even entry level positions are often requiring bachelors.


12 posted on 04/06/2007 5:49:00 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: dawn53
As to the more than 4 years lot...my son tells me he can’t believe the number of kids that just don’t go to class. So if you don’t go to class, chances are you won’t make the grade you need to move on and will have to repeat the class...thus the longer amount of time needed to graduate.

I went to school in a wealthy Massachusetts suburb, and half the graduating class went to UMass, or "Zoo Mass," as it's affectionately called. There's really nothing like poor taxpayers funding rich suburban kids' keg parties.

Anyway, these stats are a bit misleading, since they include kids who are working while going to college. But the stats aren't that misleading.

13 posted on 04/06/2007 5:49:53 AM PDT by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: dawn53
Might be true, but tell that to many employers who require a bachelors on an entry level job. I told my son that to the employer, college must be like a “gauntlet”...if you have enough perserverance to make it through, they figure you’ll stick with the job. That’s the only reason I can figure that even entry level positions are often requiring bachelors.

I understand your point, but at this stage in my life, I just can't take the BS any longer. I just can't. I am very reluctant to pay $40K+ for a worthless piece of paper, just because someone in HR, who just graduated from Wassamatta U, thinks a BA/S is important.

One hope I have is contracting. A kid could start out temping, doing clerical work, just to get his foot in the door. Then he could work his way up.

I remember a gal who began work at my company. She was a Wassamatta U graduate, but happened to be fortunate enough to fall into a small department with a retiring supervisor. Most of the experienced people were on their way out. All she had to do was do a decent job, and within a year she would have been the department supervisor. "But that would be haaaaaard." "I need more money noooooowwww. I have credit card bills I have to pay. Things are so expeeeeensive." "I'm thinking about moving back in with my folks..." Guess what? She moved back in with her folks.

I'd much rather give my kids some money toward starting their own business, or just skip college altogether. Not only is it usually a waste of money, but kids are losing out on four years of earnings and four years of work experience. On top of that, they're developing vices that may last a lifetime.

14 posted on 04/06/2007 5:59:16 AM PDT by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: pleikumud
What’s with 6 years? Normal time is still 4 years, unless that’s been dumbed down too.

Actually the average has been above 4 years for some time now. Students attend, leave for a period to earn money, return for a semester or two, and then repeat the process.

15 posted on 04/06/2007 6:04:59 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Save Fredericksburg. Support CVBT.)
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To: dawn53

No, it’s because when a kid has only a HS degree, there is small likelihood of the kid having attained more than a 4th grade reading level.

If the kid has a BA or BS, they might have achieved an 8th grade level, at least.

Employers are looking to college degrees to be the same as HS degrees of 30 years ago.


16 posted on 04/06/2007 6:10:56 AM PDT by cinives (On some planets what I do is considered normal.)
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To: Non-Sequitur

Seems to me that many of those receiving a bachelor’s degree find they have to go on to graduate school to get a good job. So the high schools don’t prepare kids for college, and the colleges don’t prepare graduates for real work. Yet the educrats want more money thrown at them, and are heavily subsidized by the federal government (taxpayers) for doing a poor job.


17 posted on 04/06/2007 6:15:49 AM PDT by pleikumud
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To: pleikumud

Bingo!!! We have a winner. Follow the money.


18 posted on 04/06/2007 6:19:04 AM PDT by Domicile of Doom (Hey boy why is there dirt in my hole? I dunno Boss.)
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To: shrinkermd

It is also true that many do extraordinarily well without a college education. IMHO college statistics suggesting they are responsible for increasing wages by 68% compared to HS graduates are really measuring intelligence and motivation more than actual course work.


Precisely. It is quite plausible that much or most of the increased income associated with college degrees is not caused by the degree, but caused by intelligence, which is correlated with but not improved by college attendance. Simply put, those who attended college make more money, but they might just have made more money if they had not attended college (and those who didn’t attend would still be earning lower pay even if they had a free ride to college.)


19 posted on 04/06/2007 6:50:37 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Your FRiendly FReeper Patent Attorney)
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