Giuliani leads McCain in poll of California's GOP (40% strongly conservatives support him)

Mercury News ^ | April 4, 2007 | Mary Anne Ostrom

[FairOpinion]

The former mayor of New York leads Sen. John McCain by a 36 percent to 24 percent margin among the state's likely GOP primary voters, and is the choice of nearly four in 10 of those who say they are "strongly conservative."

"Voters are not picking up fully on his positions or tending to discount them because of overriding issues like terrorism and Iraq, " DiCamillo said of Giuliani.

Only one in five California Republicans say there is no chance they would vote for Giuliani, and he enjoys an 80 percent favorability rating.

But no matter which of the top GOP candidates gets the nod, they will have a fight on their hands in California come the November 2008 general election. In hypothetical general election match-ups, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and 2004 vice-presidential nominee John Edwards beat Giuliani and McCain.

Clinton gets 53 percent of the vote compared with Giuliani's 40 percent, and she beats McCain by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin. Obama gets 51 percent of the vote matched against both. Edwards receives 51 percent of the vote vs. Giuliani and 49 percent when pitted against McCain.

And those who are declined-to-state or belong to a party other than the Democrats or Republicans also support the Democrats.

"California remains a blue state," DiCamillo said.

[BlackElk]

TS: Milton Friedman was strictly an economist and very good at it but he did not pretend to be anything special on other matters. He was a very fine man as well. Conservatism is about a lot more than our pocketbooks, however. We ought not to seek to emulate the guys with the eyeshades and sleeve garters, clipping coupons in the back room of the little bank on Main Street, circa 1929.

Barry Goldwater was an amoralist fraud with his long-time first wife Peggy spending 35 years until her death in 1975 on the National Board of Planned Barrenhood. Barry was also a cheerleader for abortion, bragging publicly about taking his daughter for one in the 1950s. Barry was also an enthusiast for the right of lavenders like his grandson to be puttng things where they do not belong and calling it a "right."

Barry Goldwater was not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He was essentially an enemy of the moral norms of Western Civilization and backstabbed Reagan whenever Barry thought he could get away with it.

[NorCalRepub]

..that may be true for moderates but strong conservatives are strong everywhere.....I don’t think Reagan or Duncan Hunter, or Tom McClintock et al would consider themselves any less conservative then a southern conservative

[BlackElk]

Neither Rudy nor Hillary will be nominating any judges once they have been disposed of and defeated by Fred Thompson. Rudy will get to be Attorney General (without input on social issues) and will do a terrific job.

Do not imagine that I am a Rudy basher. I actually admire a lot of what he did but he is not going to lead the GOP to "compromise" the lives of the innocent. He is bringing too much baggage to the race. For the same reason, he will not be vice-president.

[redgolum]

Good post.

My fear though, is this.

There is a huge push to do to the social conservatives what was done to the fiscal conservatives. If the GOP jettisons the social plank, it will leave no party that has any semblance of “Conservatism” anywhere.

[rintense]

I find it hard to believe that 40% of strong conservatives would support Rudy.

[George W. Bush]

In hypothetical general election match-ups, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and 2004 vice-presidential nominee John Edwards beat Giuliani and McCain.

Clinton gets 53 percent of the vote compared with Giuliani's 40 percent, and she beats McCain by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin. Obama gets 51 percent of the vote matched against both. Edwards receives 51 percent of the vote vs. Giuliani and 49 percent when pitted against McCain.

Okay, so now we're getting hard data that the Holy Polls show Giuliani can't win these liberal strongholds (first NY, now CA).

I'd say it's time for the Rudybots, who demand everyone worship the Holy Polls, to admit their candidate can never win, given that his nomination would certainly cause a defection of conservatives to third parties or to leave their ballots blank or to stay home.

If the earlier polls were supposed to cause conservatives to flock to Rudy, then these later polls, should now cause the Juliebots to abandon him. Or else they were just being dishonest all along.

1. Watch more and more conservatives supporting Giuliani.

No, his support is dropping. When the RKBA and pro-lifers and pro-family organizations speak out, he'll drop like a rock. He'll be forgotten in six months.

2. These CA polls showing Hillary beating all Republicans, including Rudy in CA -- BUT Arnold won in CA -- the same way Giuliani has a chance. In toss up states Giuliani is close or even beating Hillary, so the Dems wouldn't be able to take some blue states for granted.

Oh, okay, so now he's not beating her hands down in all these liberal states. So now you have to switch to the argument of how he'll force her to defend those states.

We nearly lost in 2000 because of Rove's failed attempt to force Gore to defend California. Don't expect us to fall for that one again.

[BlackElk]

FO: Neither Rudy nor Hillary will be nominating any judges once they have been disposed of and defeated by Fred Thompson. Rudy will get to be Attorney General (without input on social issues) and will do a terrific job.

Do not imagine that I am a Rudy basher. I actually admire a lot of what he did as Mayor.

Nonetheless, Rudy is not going to lead the GOP to "compromise" the lives of the innocent, change the platform to accommodate the evil and homocidal desires of materialistic babykillers, grab guns or appear on stage in drag at gay fundraisers. He is bringing too much baggage to the race. For the same reasons, he will not be vice-president. In spite of which, see also #58.

[aligncare]

Good read. Thank you for a well reasoned response. You made many insightful points with which I agree.

It’s still early in the primary season. However, Fred Thompson should declare his intentions very soon or it will be too late for him.

Tommy Thompson has declared his intention to run and has stated a clear vision for Iraq. I am waiting to evaluate his domestic agenda.

Duncan Hunter was very good on Sean’s show. He sounds strong on the war. Drawback is his lack of executive experience and his lack of name recognition.

Sorry, Mr. McCain, I appreciate your service to your country, but I can’t support you.

Mitt's not ready...in a few more years perhaps.

Mr. Giuliani is still at the top of my short list. But, I put a lot of stock in the debates coming up next month. The debates may change lots of minds.

[George W. Bush]

This 40% for Rudy poll (out of the top 3 contenders) took place on Free Freaking Republic not too long ago!

But all you Rudy folk claim we must worship the latest polls. Here's the current:

Fred Thompson
44.1%
Duncan Hunter
12.3%
Rudy Giuliani
10.6%
Newt Gingrich
10.2%
Ron Paul
6.8%
Tom Tancredo
5.2%
Mit Romney
4.3%
Undecided/pass
4.1%
Other
1.4%
John McCain
0.9%

At the rate Rudi is sinking, soon Ron Paul might pass him.

[BlackElk]

As the Whigs ultimately arose from the ashes of the Federalists and the Republicans from the ashes of the Whigs, the day will come when the Republicans will be replaced as well. History suggests that it was the unfettered materialism and big business orientation of the Federalists and the Whigs that led to their demise. The demise of the GOP will likely be due to similar flaws. The next incarnation will rise not on money but on morality, not on tax policy but on jobs policies, not on coupon clipping but on a manly military and foreign policy militancy. It can even take blacks and Hispanics in large numbers from the Demonrats by appealing to their faiths and families and managing somehow to avoid the reputation of obsession with comforting the comfortable while afflicting the afflicted (whether the GOP reputation for these things is justified or not).

The coven of loudmouths who have gone on autoattack against social conservatives are the very ones who value their stock portfolios over the well-being of their country and want to restore what they think of as fiscal conservatism. There is a place for fiscal conservatism but it it is not first place or very high one the agenda in opposition to a mountain of liberal evils. Fortunately, the loudmouths do not have all that many votes and the social and military and gun conservatives do.

Be not afraid. We shall prevail over neo-Goldwaterism and neo-Rockefellerism.

[NorCalRepub]

......either the poll is suspect or 40% of conservatives have had it with the conservative crooks and malcontents in the party.....hey, I’ve been Repub for all my life...mostly conservative with some leeway....and I’m fed up with the Neo Cons and bonehead “conservatives” like Delay, Cunningham, Ney, etc that got so power hungary and corrupt it screwed us in the last election....my opinion only....we only have ourselves to blame....so maybe some think Rudy is just a good leader and that is it...not sure, but our so called “conservatives” didn’t do us many favors....hell, Allen and Santorum couldn’t even win their respective races.....jeesh!!!!!!!!!

[George W. Bush]

Rudy will get to be Attorney General (without input on social issues) and will do a terrific job. Do not imagine that I am a Rudy basher. I actually admire a lot of what he did but he is not going to lead the GOP to "compromise" the lives of the innocent. He is bringing too much baggage to the race. For the same reason, he will not be vice-president.

He won't take AG if offered. I'd bet he turned Bush down on DHS too, instead pushing his mobbed-up high-school dropout buddy, Kerik.

And those who are anti-life have no place on our ticket. If we let them be VP, we're saying it's fine for them to be president.

No advocates of infanticide on the GOP ticket.

[George W. Bush]

History suggests that it was the unfettered materialism and big business orientation of the Federalists and the Whigs that led to their demise. The demise of the GOP will likely be due to similar flaws.

I think it caused the GOP defeats in '06. Voter restlessness and the war certainly contributed though.

Great posts you've made here today.

[BlackElk]

Thank you for your kind response.

Let me add one thing. What we really need is to re-create the sort of disciplined conservative movement that existed three to four decades ago which ultimately changed the GOP and elected Reagan (who carried even Taxachusettts TWICE with bold colors and no pale pastels).

We need to again develop cadres of diligent, bright and dedicated young people, reading and weighing von Mises and von Hayek as well as Scripture (and encyclicals for Catholics), books like James Burnham's Suicide of the West, Whittaker Chambers' Witness, Bill Buckley's McCarthy and His Enemies, positive biographies of Patton and Manchester's American Caesar (General MacArthur), anything by M. Stanton Evans, anything by Ann Coulter, Roberts' Rules of Order Newly Revised (master it and take control of meetings and results), take control of every GOP Youth Group or Auxiliary Group (women, minorities, etc.), learn to elect good folks at the grass roots, care about policy rather than money and contracts. Turn the justified anger of young people against their PC professors into a political movement of consequence once again. I could go on.....

At the moment, I am quite taken with the idea that Fred Dalton Thompson is God's gift to an undeserving GOP and to an undeserving USA. I know that this is dangerous thinking that is sooooo tempting in light of the fact that we have not had a real conservative movement in decades. My generation elected Reagan and thought that we had cured all problems once and for all but we were obviously wrong when Slick and Hillary moved into 1600 a mere four years after Ronaldus Maximus retired.

For all the things that matter, carry on!

God bless you and yours!

[garv]

Only one in five California Republicans say there is no chance they would vote for Giuliani, and he enjoys an 80 percent favorability rating.

If 20% of Republicans will not vote for Giuliani he loses the general election. By a lot.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Some odd points in this poll. Rudy leads but McCain would do better against the Witch?

[Tax-chick]

bt

[justshutupandtakeit]

Now even Fred the latest Great White Hope is not good enough for you? LoL seems like I cannot repeat too often that “conservatives” are hopelessly splintered thus have NO chance of beating Rudy.

[BlackElk]

Thank you for your kind remarks. I would disagree on one thing: Bernie Kerik. Now, I may be wrong and you may be right on Bernie Kerik but my basis is his autobiography which I found to be an uncommonly good read about a very remarkable man. Of course, a man's autobiography is not likely an unbiased source.

IIRC, he was born in a rust-belt Ohio town to a prostitute who was murdered (apparently by her pimps) before he knew her well. His father began Bernie's upbringing but did not live long either. Other family figures took over but Bernie joined the military and shook the dist of that town off his shoes.

He made a distinguished military, police, prison commissioner career with substantial enemies opposing him at every turn. finally, he went back to Ohio to use his influence to force authorities to cooperate in his own investigation of his mother's murder, found her obscured grave and that of her apparent murderers.

Recently, he got in trouble for having an affair with publisher Judith Regan at a city owned vacant apartment and, I believe, was recently indicted in a matter with which I am not familiar. Well, no one ever accused him of sainthood.

You must know things that I do not know. Please tell. I am not trying to provoke a fight. I really want to know.

God bless you and yours.

[justshutupandtakeit]

“Strongly conservative in CA = RINO everywhere else.” Like that has some significance since they are ONLY voting in California. Who cares where they would line up on the political spectrum in S. Carolina?