I agree that it takes some independents to win , but if a portion of the base stays home we lose. If Rudy was the nominee, an even more significant portion of the base would sit it out and we would lose again .
Let me put it to you this way : the Independtents aren't the ones volunteering their time for campaigns . In '06 , I didn't see a fraction of the volunteers I normally see , our side was completely demoralized and we can plainly see the results .
that's the see-saw of coalition politics. nominate someone that independents don't know or who won't take to, and no matter what the base does, we lose. yes, the flip side is also true.
but in 2008 - we don't have the perfect candidate. Bush barely won in 2000 and 2004.