Poor Villiers. I like him you know, but he's just hopeless.
I think Le Pen could pick up some real traction. Not enough to WIN, of course, but enough to get the knickers of the left all in a wad.
You are correct about the criminal element in France. You really have to work to get yourself outright killed in France, but you're actually more likely to get robbed (or raped) in Paris than in New York, sad to say.
The difference in penal policy is quite marked. In America, there are 2.1 million criminals locked up. You get locked up for anything. That certainly DOES keep down both the crime rate AND the unemployment rate (by about 2%).
It's more immediately expensive than welfare, and it produces trained criminals when they get out.
In France, there are only 36,000 people in prison, including couple thousand in detention provisoire. If France had the same penal policies as America, there would be in excess of 440,000 people in prison (population adjusted). So, in essence, France does not incarcerate anyone except killers and very rich tax evaders. The net result is lower overall expenses on prisons, but much higher street crime, and of course higher unemployment.
The one thing I prefer about Sarkozy over all of the others is that he is belligerent about crime. France really needs that. All of Europe needs it, but the rest of Europe is none of my business. If I were King, France would not have America's criminal policy (I would not imprison people for marijuana), but France would have a very, very aggressive policy of seriously imprisoning people who commit robberies, beatings, and other violence, including damage to property. Yes, it costs to incarcerate. Yes, prisons become training ground for criminals (unless you give prisoners other things to worry their time). But I think the general degradation of the rule of law in society, and the expense of property damage and fear of law-abiding people is intolerable.
I don't want the police beating mobs of crooks on the street and damaging the vision of the government. I want the prison guards beating them behind thick stone walls, where nobody sees it, where it does not become a cause celebre for more lawlessness and destruction. France needs the rule of law, applied in the protection of the law abiding France.
Of course I am not King, and none of the candidates are perfect. I DESPISE Sarkozy's affirmative action proposal. The gentle Bayrou's philosophy is best. But dammit all to hell we cannot have mobs of criminals breaking open shops and destroying everything all the time, making it unsafe for law-abiding people, taxpayers to simply use the trains they pay, and exposing children to all of this violence and danger.
Sarkozy, at least, is willing to bust heads. Unfortunately, in his previous positions he has never shown good follow-through. He's a little adrenal gland who really gets the riots going full storm by crackdowns, but then backs away. But maybe that is because Chi-Chi is the doddering old fool that he is, and Dominiquette has no spine for a fight. Sarkozy has never been truly in command. He has always been a subaltern.
Sarkozy's ideas are bad for France. Affirmative Action is bad for France. But ideas don't matter a crap if the streets are on fire, do they? Sarkozy and Le Pen are the only ones who are willing to speak of putting la main fort directly on the neck of the bandits and eliminating them from the streets.
Perhaps it is time.
If Sarkozy will do the right thing on crime, it will transform France. His badly thought out other policies will be no good, but can be repealed. If he will bring order, then that may be enough.
I am appreciating Sarkozy more and more, in spite of his flaws. Bayrou is right on so many issues, but is not lawlessness the bigger issue? Do we not have to have CONTROL, simple basic CONTROL of the streets, before we can imagine intricate adjustments to law and policy. Perfect laws don't do anything if law is not being enforced.
Imagine if there were no Sarkozy in this race. With this, and what will likely follow, it would be another Year of Le Pen. But this time, he would go farther.
Keep me posted on the polls, but also please post whatever else comes from the Prefecture regarding police actions and incidents. There was always the potential for big things to alter the ground. Does this expand? Is it contained? Is the simmer boiling elsewhere?
France needs a firm hand. The palsied hand is leaving. Royal's is sclerotic in a socialist way.
Bayrou...may be too gentle for the job.
France needs someone who will enforce her laws, all of them.
That may have to be Sarkozy after all.
If not him, there is only one other whose resolve is certain and unquestionable, and unquestioned: Le Pen.
Whoever wins must take this in hand and put the boot on the neck of the street criminals. Le Pen will. Royal will not. Bayrou? The question mark, in this case, is inadequate.
Sarkozy. I believe Sarkozy will. What I don't know is whether he will do it effectively, once he is in charge, or whether he will prove to be like Rumsfeld in Iraq: strong, tough talking, but incompetent. Sarkozy's past withdrawals in the face of violent pushback makes me worry, but he was not his own man then. As President, he would be.
I think maybe we have been reminded of why Sarkozy has to win. Or Le Pen. Ideas and programmes are wonderful, but if the rule of law does not run in the land, then they are meaningless. Order must be restored in France. Le Pen will. Sarkozy probably will. Bayrou? Royal no.
Given that, perhaps it is Sarkozy's time.
I agree with you about it being Sarko's time. Villiers is just so elitist and prissy, the part of his message that is interesting just doesn't get through. I don't think he has, however, the depth that Sarko has.
Re: "The difference in penal policy is quite marked. In America, there are 2.1 million criminals locked up. You get locked up for anything. That certainly DOES keep down both the crime rate AND the unemployment rate "
In America, as you well know, one cannot get "locked up for anything". You can be arrested, but you must be brought before a Judge or Grand Jury and indicted within 24-48 hours.
Unlike France, we have a 4th Amendment, and no preventive or unlimited detention without being charged for a crime.
Crime, petty crime, street crime and the like are quality of life issues that affect the way the rest of society, ie, the law abiding overwhelming majority live. NYC with Rudy as Mayor is the outstanding example of how dealing with these smaller crimes led to a dramatic lowering of all crime.