Posted on 03/26/2007 5:50:03 PM PDT by LdSentinal
For months, people have asked me in conversations and on the radio who I think will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States. For months, I’ve been saying that it was highly likely the eventual Republican nominee hadn’t yet made his or her interest public.
That may well have changed with the "Draft Fred" campaign to encourage former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson to run for president.
Republicans have been going through a process not uncommon in politics. They’ve been looking over the field in the race and wondering if there isn’t a faster horse that has yet to enter.
If Thompson seeks the Republican nomination, he’ll win it, unless there is some as-yet-unknown oversized skeleton lurking in his political closet.
He’ll win for three reasons:
He’s a southerner with conservative credentials in national government service
He’s a personality in an age of personality-driven politics
He will out-presence his opponents
Whether Thompson wants to subject himself to the meat grinder that is presidential politics is something only he can answer. One line of thinking suggests that it would be exceptionally difficult for someone with a decent chance of making history by occupying the Oval Office to turn aside from that possibility – but given the tenor of the times, who could blame anyone for saying no thanks?
The other issue only Thompson knows is how he would feel about having every as-yet unexamined area of his life microscopically analyzed by the news media and opponents alike.
Assuming he runs, on the immediate plus side, the man’s a movie and television star (my personal favorite: The Hunt for Red October).
In 1994, when Thompson successfully ran for the U.S. Senate, early-on his victory was far from certain. Running against U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, a bright, articulate and formidable candidate in his own right, Thompson started the campaign well back in the polls.
In fact, as late as August – just three months before the election – few Knoxville Republican donors were willing to ante-up $250 per person at a fundraiser to meet Fred Thompson and have their pictures taken with him.
About that same time, at an event in a downtown hotel, I was walking across the lobby when I felt a very big hand clap me on the shoulder. Turning around, I saw Fred Thompson. Actually, I saw his tie. Being of average height, Thompson pretty much towered above me.
"How do you think it’s going, really?" he asked.
"What I think is that you’re here and Jim Cooper’s here," I said, holding my left hand about a foot above my right hand. "Over the next few months, when people start hearing your voice and seeing your face, they’re going to realize that they know you and that they like you. Jim Cooper is a first-rate candidate, but when the debates begin, I think you’re going to come across more formidable, and at some point before the election my prediction is that the lines will cross."
"I hope you’re right," he said, and that was that.
He didn’t win just because people recognized him, of course. He ran an effective, imaginative campaign and reversed the numbers in a matter of weeks.
Assuming he decides he’s willing to make the run, being a famous southerner with conservative credentials gives him the move to the inside part of the track, particularly when the Democrats seem fully intent on repeating history.
Since 1964 the only winners of the presidency are those with roots in the south and the west. (George Bush, the 41st President, has New England ties, but his eyes have been on Texas for many an election cycle. The GOP didn’t hold the 1992 Republican National Convention in Texas for no reason).
The lineup of Lyndon Johnson (Texas); Richard Nixon (California); Jimmy Carter (Georgia); Ronald Reagan (California); George Bush (Texas); Bill Clinton (Arkansas); and George W. Bush (Texas) suggests that the Democrats’ traditional selection of northern liberals just doesn’t work well. Yet, Sen. Hillary Clinton (New York) and Sen. Barack Obama (Illinois) are sucking up all the oxygen in the Democratic contest.
One could argue Hillary Clinton is a southerner by virtue of having been First Lady of the state. But it might be hard to convince the rest of the country that she ran for the senate from New York because she’s a die-hard razorback.
Another Thompson advantage is that he’s a personality in a personality-driven political culture. And with his size, voice and demeanor, he’ll out-presence any contender he’ll face.
Barring some remarkable calamity, if Thompson is at the top of the ticket it’s hard to envision red states going blue in November 2008. The reverse is more likely.
Fred Thompson and the hunt for a red November.
It could be an ending for the movies.
Only Fred Thompson can beat Hillary!!!!!
;)
This analysis is so transparent it defies belief. More blather from another obscure Tennssee nobody looking to pander to the local yokels. Look, we might even have a president from here yuk yuk. Why he might even be another Ronald Reagan. They were both in the movies. Getting posted on Free Republic is undoubtedly the biggest accomplishment in George Knorda's life.
The Hunt for Red November...gotta love it:)
"This analysis is so transparent it defies belief. More blather from another obscure Tennssee nobody looking to pander to the local yokels. Look, we might even have a president from here yuk yuk. Why he might even be another Ronald Reagan. They were both in the movies. Getting posted on Free Republic is undoubtedly the biggest accomplishment in George Knorda's life."
LOL
Sounds like the rudyphiles are starting to get mighty nervous at the thought of Fred Thompson in the race.
Uhmmm...those "local yokels" happen to be voters.
Your hostility toward those of us who are supporting a Fred Thompson candidacy is really not doing your candidate, Giuliani, any good.
The last thing in the world we need--is a LIBERAL like Guiliani--who will split the Republican Party wide-open.
Let's rally and unite behind a CONSERVATIVE!!! That's the ONLY way the Party will get the energy, passion, enthusiasm, and volunteer efforts for a BIG TURNOUT!!
No truer words spoken.
"Uhmmm...those "local yokels" happen to be voters. "
And they just happen to be the key to the last two republican presidential victories.
The JulieAnnie-Apologists are more than willing to sacrifice the traditional conservative base (and yes, even the local yokels)--and replace us with liberals and independents in an effort to elect a LIBERAL!
Well, maybe they will succeed, maybe not. If they 'win' (if you can call it that) without us,,
I HOPE THEY ENJOY THEIR,,,,,,,"NEW PARTY"!
It's absolutely pathetic.
Excellent titles to this article..
However America's Women WANT A SOCIALIST PRESIDENT..
Americas women have become (generally) dumber than a post..
RUN FRED RUN!!!
I can see liberal women supporting him,,,but 'so-called' conservatives? Unbelievable.
Giuliani's mother (Dame Edna) must be so proud..
Here's the deal- I like Rudy. He's an intersting character in American life. He did a lot of good in NYC- a town notoriously difficult to manage. Hand in hand with our president, he really helped the country through the 9-11 time..I won't take any of that from him- and if it came to it- I'd vote for him in November 08. I wouldn't work for him, give or raise money for him- but in the end- I'd vote for him.
I also think the world of Duncan Hunter and Romney wouldn't be the end of the world...I'd vote for them too. McCain will not win our primary, so I don't have to wring my hands over that one...
I have been listening to Fred Thompson for years- in and out of the Senate...on cable and C-Span etc. (I think I MAY have seen him once on Law and Order- though I'm not sure cause I don't watch it.) EVERY time I heard him speak I'd think...now why doesn't HE run for POTUS?
I hope he decides to run, I believe he can beat whoever the libs put up, hands down.
"This analysis is so transparent it defies belief. More blather from another obscure Tennssee nobody looking to pander to the local yokels. Look, we might even have a president from here yuk yuk. Why he might even be another Ronald Reagan. They were both in the movies. Getting posted on Free Republic is undoubtedly the biggest accomplishment in George Knorda's life."
Giuliani must have tied your panties in a bunch.
However, I would NEVER vote for him for President. The President is the leader of the country AND the Party,,,,,
and, as a conservative,,,,I feel very strongly that,,,
"Liberal Republicans like Guilian are more dangerous than liberal democrats,,,
because liberal Republicans BLUR THE DISTINCTION between conservatism and liberalism,,,
MAKING LIBERALISM MUCH MORE ACCEPTABLE!
This country just does NOT need two political parties to the LEFT-OF-CENTER!!
I haven't made up my mind yet. I like Newt the most but he has almost no chance. Come February I will vote for who I think is best. Come November, I will vote for the Republican, no matter who he is. We have all seen that elections have consequences.
I hate seeing these posts degrade into name-calling over differences of opinion. Work like hell for your guy now, and good luck. But remember we will all be against the witch next spring. It would be nice if you all didn't end up hating each other over some heated posting.
The NY Slimes political blog just noticed Fred. Naturally, it's biased and misinformative. Fear the Fred!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/03/26/fred-thompsons-record/
And- I understand and respect your beliefs.
Just amazing how that works, isn't it...why you'd think we were almost adults!
In the meantime...Run, Fred, RUN!!!
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