... or, bend over - I'll drive.
Posted on 03/25/2007 8:42:24 PM PDT by GiveEmDubya
Last Updated: Sunday, March 25, 2007 | 9:54 PM ET
CBC News
Quebec faces the real possibility of a minority government for the first time in more than a century, as the province's main political parties remain locked in a virtual tie with voters heading to the polls on Monday.
Quebec has not elected a minority government since 1878, when a dispute over railroad laws erupted between the province's Liberal lieutenant-governor, Hon. Luc Letellier de St-Just, and Charles-Eugène Boucher, the Conservative premier. Boucher was fired, prompting an election in which the Tories, under new leader Joseph-Adolphe Chapleau, squeaked by the Liberals with a one-seat advantage.
Henri-Gustave Joly de Lotnibinière, the Liberal leader, recruited two Independent MNAs to outnumber the Conservative caucus, and assumed the premiership with a minority coalition that lasted 18 months before five members fled the fold.
When the Liberals attempted to call a new election, Quebec's new Conservative lieutenant-governor turned them down, allowing Chapleau's Conservatives to form the new government.
No minority tradition in Quebec
This unique precedent for minority governments in Quebec doesn't offer many lessons for modern-day politicians, said l'Université de Montréal political scientist Pierre Martin. "The party blocks were fluid [then], individuals had room to manoeuvre that they don't have today," he told Canadian Press.
A minority government scenario has not figured in contemporary Quebec politics because of the popular rise of the Parti Québécois, Martin theorizes. When former Quebec premier Maurice Duplessis's Union national faded from the province's political scene in the late 1960s, after ruling for much of the 30s, 40s and 50s, the nascent separatist movement that became the PQ quickly replaced it as the Liberal Party's counterpoint.
"The transition from the Union nationale-Liberal system to the rise of the PQ was very fast," Martin said. "There was no place for a transition situation where a minority government could have been conceivable with the three parties."
Several provinces have flirted with minority governments, including Ontario, where the Liberals ruled from 1985 to 1987 with NDP support. Saskatchewan's NDP governed from 1999 to 2003 despite only holding 29 of the legislature's 58 seats, and Nova Scotia currently has a minority Conservative government.
But Quebec is moving into unfamiliar territory. "I think the most useful [precedent] is the situation before us in the Canadian Parliament — that is to say a minority government that subsists on a case-by-case basis," Martin said.
Quebec parties divided on minority outcome
PQ Leader André Boisclair said his party's plan to hold a first-term referendum won't fall flat if Quebecers elect a minority government on March 26. The PQ is prepared to work with Mario Dumont's Action démocratique du Québec party on the constitutional front, to organize another provincial vote on sovereignty, Boisclair told CBC.
Dumont has repeatedly said he's an autonomist, not a sovereigntist — and during the debate told Boisclair he will not help him with a referendum. But the PQ leader is convinced otherwise.
Dumont is "sending confusing messages. Some days he says he doesn't want a referendum. Some other days he says to sovereigntists 'come to vote for the ADQ,'" he said. "My duty is to leave the door open, and I feel that it's still possible to build a coalition to have a referendum," Boisclair said recently.
Liberal Leader Jean Charest has warned voters a minority government will weaken Quebec's bargaining power with the federal government. "Quebec has never elected, or at least not for 100 years, a minority government, for a reason," he said during the campaign.
Dumont, who is the only leader to predict a minority government outcome, is confident the scenario will lead to greater political accountability, he told CBC. Minority governments paradoxical
Voters do retain the impression that minority governments are more accountable, but they are also be paradoxical, said Vincent Marissal, a political columnist with La Presse, a Montreal daily.
"If you're not happy with [the government] you just fire them and have another election. But people don't like to have elections. It's expensive, and people have to make a choice. But because of cynicism in the population, people like the idea of keeping their government on a short leash," he told CBC.ca.
A minority government is a wake-up call and may force Quebec's leading parties to do some soul-searching, Marissal said. That's what happened to the federal Conservatives.
"When we elected Stephen Harper's minority government, some people said it was almost the end of the world. But the world is still turning, it's not that bad, he's managed to keep it together," Marissal said.
"To see today how green the Conservatives have become, it's the best example to show that a minority government can change a political party, in a deep way."
With files from Canadian Press
... or, bend over - I'll drive.
They (studio analysts) are more keen to seeing Charest take a seat in a by-election. Myself, I think his goose is cooked. Not a word about who'd replace him. His deputy premier maybe?
Over a 13% swing from Liberal to ADQ tonight. Incredible.
FWIW, there'll be a federal election long before the next Quebec vote, but you already knew that.
I guess maybe a year.
I just heard some fool on CTV try and spin this as a terrible result for Harper. How do they come up with this stuff?
Are they kidding? Harper has GOT to be licking his chops right now at the possibilities.
Charest is now within 300 votes he might yet pull it out.
Orford, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, and Johnson are the only seats still undeclared.
Claude Forgues PQ 10973 34.15% X
Jean Charest LIB 10863 33.8%
It's only 110 votes now and the CBC is now posting that he lost. I almost want to see him come back so the CBC calls it wrong twice in one night. :)
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes2007/story/2007/03/26/qvc-charestsherbrooke20070326.html
Boisclair about to concede.
The music is louder than the crowd. The video was acting up on me so I can't see it, but I bet it's a morgue in that ballroom right now.
Looks like the final results will be
46 PLQ
42 ADQ
37 PQ
All 125 seats now declared, but we still don't know what's up in Sherbrooke.
CBC: Charest's entourage insists that they've won the riding by 1000 votes.
In that case, the results would be:
47 PLQ
42 ADQ
36 PQ
Charest has officially pulled ahead, and he very well may have won it after all.
CPAC & the Liberal HQ have called it for Charest. Reports of his political demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Boisclair's probably finished, the separatists have been dealt a crushing blow, and Harper will probably cash in within the next few months. What's more is that Dumont is definitely within striking distance to win the next election himself.
This was an historic night in Quebec and Canada, and I'm glad I got to see it in motion.
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