Posted on 03/25/2007 11:00:27 AM PDT by LdSentinal
Michigan is likely to lose one of its 15 seats in Congress after the 2010 U.S. census - meaning the possibility of a little less clout in Washington, a little less attention from presidential candidates and the smallest delegation from Michigan in about 100 years, based on census numbers released today.
Even though the state's population grew by 1.6% over the last six years, it did so a lot more slowly than in states like Texas (13%), Arizona (20%) and Nevada (25%). That means reapportionment of the 435-member U.S. House will send seats from slow-growing or backsliding Northeast and Midwest states to the South and West.
"I don't think there's any chance of a turnaround, given the magnitude," Clark Bensen, whose Virginia-based firm Polidata researches population numbers for political clients, said Wednesday. "Unless Toyota moves into Detroit and takes over, you're going down."
Based on Bensen's projections for 2010, Michigan will be among a handful of states likely to lose a seat - Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota among them. New York and Ohio stand to lose two, he said.
His projections show Texas gaining four seats and Florida and Arizona two apiece.
Bensen noted that if reapportionment occurred today, Michigan would keep its 15 seats. But if the trends nationwide continue, it's unlikely after the next census.
It would then be up to the state Legislature to carve out districts among 14 seats.
Michigan has lost at least one representative after each of the last four censuses, from a peak of 19 after the 1960 census. The number determines how many Electoral College votes a state gets for president, with one for every Congress member and each of two senators.
It is always good news when a blue state loses one or more congressional seats! YAY!
One less seat that could go to another muslim.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
This is what will happen when you tax your base to death and kill business. People are heading to the Southeast faster than ever.
Central Texas is booming out of it's seems right now. Freepers only welcome here. :)
'Texas (13%), Arizona (20%) and Nevada (25%)'
Wow.
If two seats are gone, it's gonna be real fun watching the State legislature figuring out how to gerrymander districts for the Dems. Maybe John Conyers will finally decide to retire. Not likely. As Detroit and Wayne county continue to drop thousands of residents want to bet that the black caucus will demand more black representation?
That means the Republicans will have to give up a seat. Gonna be a great fight.
Just declare Detroit a federal district and they can give it their own congressmen like they want to do with Washington DC.
If only Massachusetts could lose one of its Senate seats as well.
BTTT!
All the sane people are leaving so my guess is that the Dems will not lose any seats, just electoral votes.
That would be good. MI has become much too "liberal".
Hmmm...I'm not sure what data he's using. I'm guessing that it's
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/
In particular,
Arizona’s Maricopa Leads Counties in Population Growth Since Census 2000
which, if you follow the links, takes you to population estimates for every state in the union. But the estimates go back to last July so that's really not new data.
I suppose his value added is taking that data and projecting to 2010.
As is (July 2006 official estimate), I get TX+2, AZ+1, CA+1, FL+1, GA+1, UT+1, IA-1, LA-1, MA-1, MO-1, NY-1, OH-1, PA-1, and MI at 0.
However there are still 3.5 years left to 2010, and TX could very well get up to +4, and MI would be lucky to stay at 0.
3.5 years from the date of the estimate.
"If only Massachusetts could lose one of its Senate seats as well."
Yeah. I'm thinking of one in particular.
"People are heading to the Southeast faster than ever."
And the West and Southwest: Texas, Arizona and Nevada.
Ranked by Percent Growth --
Nevada
Arizona
Idaho
Florida
Utah
Georgia
Texas
North Carolina
Delaware
Oregon
The two largest counties for absolute growth are Riverside, CA and Clark, NV at over 400,000 each between 2000 and 2005. Only one other county in the US was over 200,000.
Clearly the pop. is moving South, Southwest, and West.
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