Giuliani's Tipping Point

Townhall ^ | March 24, 2007 | John Hanlon

[FairOpinion]

In his 2000 bestselling book The Tipping Point: How Little Things can make a big Difference, Malcolm Gladwell explores the idea of 'the tipping point,' the moment or time period when an item, an idea, a strategy or a person (or anything for that matter) changes from being just a 'product' into a cultural phenomenon. For example, the crackdown on quality of life crimes in New York City under Giuliani led to an overall 'crime tipping point' in that city where the crime rate went from a high point to an extremely low point in a short period of time, an amazing feat by any measure.

In his book, Malcolm Gladwell writes about the dramatic crime rate change in New York City that happened under America's Mayor. This occurred, Gladwell argues, for several reasons but one of the main reasons behind it was Rudy Giuliani's focus and prosecution of quality of life crimes at the lowest level in the city. As mayor, Giuliani started aggressively going after those responsible for quality of life crimes, such as spraying graffiti and public drunkedness. After this crackdown began, the number of smaller crimes in the city began to decrease and the momentum began building up. With that momentum building, the number of larger crimes began to decrease and crime in the city tipped -- and suddenly, New York City had become much safer than it had been in years.

This was one of the strongest examples of Gladwell’s book (which I strongly recommend, by the way) and it shows how one small idea transformed an entire city.

As an example of this great momentum Giuliani has going for him, recent poll numbers have shown Giuliani rapidly expanding his lead. The latest poll from CNN conducted between March 9th and 11th has the former mayor of New York with the support of 34% of Republicans polled while McCain only has the support of 18% of the Republicans (and he’s in second place!). Meanwhile, the latest poll from the website Rasmussen Reports currently has 33% percent of Republican support behind Giuliani and only 15% of support behind McCain (poll conducted between March 12 and March 15th). Those two polls have Giuliani up by 16% and 18% respectively, an astounding gap with so many candidates in the field and a gap that seems to be expanding with every new poll between these two candidates.

[TommyDale]

"Thompson has to actually do a little something called enter the race."

All in good time. I see today in Bob Novak's column that Thompson's wife is encouraging him to run. That was likely the biggest cause for hesitation. He will likely enter the race some time in the summer.

[Wisky Business]

I think Guliani is the only Republican who can win a general election. The question is, can he win the GOP nomination with a pro-choice, pro-gun control and pro-gay political resume. I say yes because there isn't a strong candidate from the right to stop him.

[veronica]

[DocH]

Have you seen the latest propaganda being posted here by one of Rudy's hack, (FO)?

WHO could you POSSIBLY mean, "FO'?

Could that person be?:

1. Foolish Orator

2. Fairly Obnoxious

3. Fool Online

4. FAUX-republican Ogler

Here, near or in Atlanta, an "FO" is a "frosted orange" drink at the Varsity.

'Course, to TELL someone to FO (someone should tell RINO-rudy), well, that's another story.

[MamaB]

I for one will not support this liberal.

[DocH]

veronica's tagline: You hate Rudy. I hate the terrorists.

I hate BOTH (liberal RINOS trying to take over the Republican party and, like the liberal demonRATS, essentially destroying our country from WITHIN, AND ragheaded terrorist bastards trying to destroy our country from WITHOUT).

[MamaB]

I use to like Rudy but the more I learn about him the less I like him. He is not a conservative by any means. He is flip-flopping all over the place so who can believe anything he says anymore.

[DocH]

I for one will not support this liberal (RINO-rudy).

Then...

MamaB SMART!

[MamaB]

Why are you for a person who is a liberal?

[narses]

Rudy Guiliani has marched in lockstep with liberals on affirmative action, gay rights, gay marriage, gun control, school prayer, tuition tax credits, liberal immigration policies, and he's reinforced it, time and time again. Just about everytime Rudy opens his mouth, offensive liberal words come pouring out. As Mayor, Rudy put liberals in high-paid city jobs, an indication what a Rudy WH would look like. Here then is Rudy in his own words:

--The New York State Liberal Party on its endorsement of Rudy Giuliani for Mayor: "When the Liberal Party Policy Committee reviewed a list of key social issues of deep concern to progressive New Yorkers, we found that Rudy Giuliani agreed with the Liberal Party's stance on a majority of such issues. He agreed with the Liberal Party's views on affirmative action, gay rights, gun control, school prayer and tuition tax credits. As Mayor, Rudy Giuliani would uphold the Constitutional and legal rights to abortion." N.Y.S. Liberal Party Endorsement Statement of Candidate Giuliani for Mayor of New York City April 8, 1989

--On the Republican Party: "Mr. Rockefeller represented 'a tradition in the Republican Party' I've worked hard to re-kindle - the Rockefeller, Javits, Lefkowitz tradition." Rudy Giuliani told the New York Times July 9, 1992

--Village Voice Interview with Guiliani: He was asked: "What kind of Republican Is [Giuliani]? A Reagan Republican?" Giuliani pauses before answering: "I'm a Republican." Village Voice January 24, 1989

--On Attending 1996 Republican Convention: Rudy expressed his pleasure when he wasn't invited to the Republican National Convention in San Diego. "If I take three or four days off from city business, I want to do it for a substantive purpose. It didn't seem to me any substantive purpose could be served by going to the Republican convention." said Rudy. Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Page 459, by Wayne Barrett

--On Barry Goldwater: Giuliani described John Kennedy as "great and brilliant. Barry Goldwater as an "incompetent, confused and sometimes idiotic man." New York Daily News, May 13, 1997

--On President Bill Clinton: Shortly before his last-minute endorsement of Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election, Giuliani told the Post's Jack Newfield that "most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.

--The Daily News quoted Giuliani as saying March 1996: "Whether you talk about President Clinon, Senator Dole.... The country would be in very good hands in the hands of any of that group." An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.

[narses]

The Real Rudy Giuliani:

From Human Events:

Rudy's Strong Pro-Abortion Stance

As these comments from a 1989 conversation with Phil Donahue show, Rudy Giuliani is staunchly in favor of abortion:

"I've said that I'll uphold a woman's right of choice, that I will fund abortion so that a poor woman is not deprived of a right that others can exercise, and that I would oppose going back to a day in which abortions were illegal.

I do that in spite of my own personal reservations. I have a daughter now; if a close relative or a daughter were pregnant, I would give my personal advice, my religious and moral views ...

Donahue: Which would be to continue the pregnancy.

Giuliani: Which would be that I would help her with taking care of the baby. But if the ultimate choice of the woman - my daughter or any other woman - would be that in this particular circumstance [if she had] to have an abortion, I'd support that. I'd give my daughter the money for it."

Worse yet, Giuliani even supports partial birth abortion:

"I'm pro-choice. I'm pro-gay rights,Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions. "No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing," he responded." -- CNN.com, "Inside Politics" Dec 2, 1999

It's bad enough that Rudy is so adamantly pro-abortion, but consider what that could mean when it comes time to select Supreme Court Justices. Does the description of Giuliani that you've just read make you think he's going to select an originalist like Clarence Thomas, who would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade -- or does it make you think he would prefer justices like Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy who'd leave Roe v. Wade in place?

Rudy's abortion stance is bad news for conservatives who are pro-life or who are concerned about getting originalist judges on the Supreme Court.

An Anti-Second Amendment Candidate

In the last couple of election cycles, 2nd Amendment issues have moved to the back burner mainly because even Democratic candidates have learned that being tagged with the "gun grabber" label is political poison.

Unfortunately, Rudy Giuliani is a proponent of gun control who supported the Brady Bill and the Assault Weapon Ban.

Do Republicans really want to abandon their strong 2nd Amendment stance by selecting a pro-gun control nominee?

[narses]

Soft on Gay Marriage

Other than tax cuts, the biggest domestic issue of the 2004 election was President Bush's support of a Constitutional Amendment to define marriage as being between a man and a woman. Unfortunately, Rudy Giuliani has taken a "Kerryesque" position on gay marriage.

Although Rudy, like John Kerry, has said that marriage should remain between a man and a woman, he also supports civil unions, "marched in gay-pride parades" ...dressed up in drag on national television for a skit on Saturday Night Live (and moved in with a) wealthy gay couple" after his divorce. He also very vocally opposed running on a gay marriage amendment:

His thoughts on the gay-marriage amendment? "I don't think you should run a campaign on this issue," he told the Daily News earlier this month. "I think it would be a mistake for anybody to run a campaign on it -- the Democrats, the president, or anybody else."

Here's more from the New York Daily News:

"Rudy Giuliani came out yesterday against President Bush's call for a ban on gay marriage.

The former mayor, who Vice President Cheney joked the other night is after his job, vigorously defended the President on his post-9/11 leadership but made clear he disagrees with Bush's proposal to rewrite the Constitution to outlaw gays and lesbians from tying the knot.

"I don't think it's ripe for decision at this point," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"I certainly wouldn't support [a ban] at this time," added Giuliani..."

Although Rudy may grudgingly say he doesn't support gay marriage (and it would be political suicide for him to do otherwise), where he really stands on the issue is an open question.

[trisham]

A lot of pundits are going to disagree with me on this but Giuliani’s current momentum is not a good thing for his campaign, especially ten months before anyone starts voting. Giuliani already has the momentum of a bicyclist at top speed in the race but it can not possibly last and the reason why goes back to Gladwell's whole philosophy of the tipping point.

*****************

Knock yourself out, Giuliani.

[Peach]

Summer? Oh, my. Well, good luck to him. Donors are already committing and there are few campaign staffers to be found for hire in most states.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Even I'm getting tired of the hijacking of the Rudy threads -- and I'm one of the anti-rudy crowd.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I've been Hawking Gladwell's book "Tipping Point" for a month now on these threads (and his book "Blink" in the Compean/Ramos threads).

But having read the book, and listened to the CD of the author reading his book, I can say that Giuliani does not figure prominently in the Author's discussion of New York's turnaround. He does mention Giuliani's name, but spends a lot more time on the man credited with the turnaround, Police Commissioner Barrett, who Giuliani fired after Time made him man of the Year.

[supercat]

I think Guliani is the only Republican who can win a general election.

Giuliani may do a good job in capturing the nominal support of moderates for whose votes the Democrats are not presently competing. In the general election, Democrats are going to compete hard to win those votes. There's no way Giuliani will be able to keep them all, and I don't think it's at all clear he'll even keep enough to make up for the conservative votes he gives up.

[KATIE-O]

I think it's wishful thinking on the Lib's part, (as well as a handful of Rudyphobes on FR) that Rudy will crash and burn. He has the support and endorsement of many high profile conservative Republicans. He has proven himself to be a strong and effective leader.

Go Rudy - '08

[hinckley buzzard]

There are two things you need to understand to respond to this article appropriately--First, tipping points are bullshit. A phoney meme of the "public intellectual." The second thing is that nothing happens over night. The proverbial case in showbiz is apropos here--"After ten years of laboring in obscurity he was an overnight sensation!"

[George W. Bush]

The question is, after his tipping point-- after his bicycle crashes into a wall -- will Giuliani have enough of a chance and enough time to rebuild his momentum to win in next year's primary? Or, when his momentum comes to a crashing halt, who else will be there to pick it up?

Thompson. Or maybe Romney who is planning to peak on a certain schedule. Romney has remarkable discipline and pace.